How Will AI Export Policies Redefine U.S. Global Influence?

China’s new AI model, DeepSeek, has rattled markets and raised questions about the global AI race. Meanwhile, just before leaving office, the Biden administration introduced the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion—an ambitious new rule that could reshape how—and who—gets access to advanced AI technologies from the U.S. It is designed to regulate AI exports, strengthen partnerships with allies, and restrict adversaries’ access to advanced AI chips and models.

But with the Trump administration now in power, will this framework survive? The stakes are high: AI chips fuel cutting-edge technologies, and whoever controls them holds the keys to the future of advanced AI systems.

In this episode, Sophia Besch and Technology and International Affairs Fellow Sam Winter-Levy explore what Biden’s new AI framework aims to achieve, how DeepSeek might challenge U.S. AI dominance, and what we might expect from the Trump administration's with respect to AI exports. Will Washington double down on AI restrictions, or will Trump scrap Biden’s framework in favor of a new approach? And with China rapidly advancing, can the U.S. maintain its technological edge?

Notes:

1. Sam Winter-Levy, "The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 13, 2024.
2. Sam Winter-Levy, "With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread,"  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 13, 2025.
3. Matt Sheehan and Sam Winter-Levy, "Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28, 2025.
4. Leopold Aschenbrenner, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," June 2024.
5. Jeffrey Ding, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition, Princeton University Press (2024).
6. Benjamín Labatut, When We Cease to Understand the World, Pushkin Press and New York Review of Books (2021).