In this engaging discussion, trade expert Brad Setzer, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, reveals his skepticism regarding the Trump administration's aggressive tariff strategies. He argues that imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada could have severe economic repercussions. Setser contrasts these actions with past trade practices, delving into their impact on consumer prices and cross-border supply chains. The conversation also navigates the complexities of global trade dynamics and the potential shifts in U.S. influence.
The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could trigger significant economic shocks due to their pivotal trade roles with the U.S.
Trump's aggressive use of tariffs as a primary negotiating tool marks a fundamental shift in American trade policy, impacting global economic dynamics.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade Patterns
Tariffs serve as taxes on imported goods, providing revenue and protection for domestic industries. The proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico could cause significant shocks to the U.S. economy, as these nations are key trading partners, representing a large portion of GDP. For example, the U.S. imports roughly $400 billion from Canada, primarily oil, and imports about $500 billion from Mexico, with autos and auto parts being critical. Such tariffs would not only affect import prices but could lead to inflationary pressures and diminish overall economic momentum.
Trump's Unconventional Approach to Tariffs
Trump differentiates himself from previous presidents by openly embracing tariffs as a primary negotiating tool, calling himself the 'tariff man.' Unlike past leaders who often viewed tariffs as a necessary evil, Trump interprets them as leverage in trade negotiations and even as a means to raise government revenue. This shift represents a fundamental change in American trade policy, where tariffs are not merely used to protect domestic interests but are applied aggressively as a form of economic strategy. The unusual use of tariffs is seen as risky, potentially damaging relationships with neighboring countries and complicating trade dynamics.
Retaliation and Global Trading Dynamics
Countries respond differently to tariff threats, with larger economies having more leverage and capacity for retaliation. The size of a country's economy influences its ability to impose tariffs and impact trade relations, as seen with Colombia's capitulation to U.S. pressures. For smaller economies, the risk of being bullied into unfavorable agreements is more prominent, while larger trading blocks may retaliate collectively. Ultimately, the strategic responses to tariffs can reshape global trading relationships, compelling nations to consider alternative partners if they feel threatened.
Long-Term Consequences of Tariffs for Global Trade
The ongoing use of tariffs may lead to a significant restructuring of global trade patterns, causing countries to seek alternative trading relationships outside of U.S. influence. The U.S. has been a dominant force in global imports, with trade deficits sustaining many foreign economies, yet coercive trade practices could prompt nations, like Canada, to explore deeper integration with other regions, such as Europe. This shift could diminish the U.S.'s role as a central trading partner and force a re-evaluation of economic dependencies. The evolving tariff landscape underscores the necessity for a rules-based international trading system, where predictable norms govern the actions of major economies.
At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, the Trump administration maintained that it would impose a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1. This comes after announcing a 10 percent duty on China earlier in the week. Trade and capital expert Brad Setser is skeptical that it will follow through, though, saying that the economic ramifications of tariffs at that scale would be a “ pretty bloody big shock.” Setser sits down with host Ravi Agrawal to share more.