A professor discusses dynamic realism theory in great power war, highlighting trade expectations' causal role. Case studies from revolutionary to cold war eras are analyzed. Insights on averting catastrophic U.S.-China war are shared, emphasizing economic and military strategies.
Future trade expectations play a critical role in preventing great power war according to Dale Copeland's dynamic realism theory.
Commercial power and economic expectations influence American foreign policy development over 250 years, showcasing a power-based logic.
States dependent on trade and investment tend to exhibit moderate behavior; declining trade prospects may lead to aggression.
Deep dives
Dale Copeland's Book Focuses on Great Power Behavior Theory
Dale Copeland's book presents a theory of great power behavior applicable to American foreign policy. He emphasizes a systemic, realist explanation that integrates insights from defensive and offensive perspectives. Copeland's theory aims to explore the dynamic and power-based arguments, considering commercial and military power, across different events in American foreign policy.
Commercial and Power-Driven Aspects Shaping American Foreign Policy
Copeland highlights the importance of commercial and power-driven dynamics in American foreign policy development, spanning over 250 years. He illuminates how commercial power, trade, and economic expectations influence great power behavior, showcasing a different perspective on American foreign policy historically shaped by power-driven logic.
Long-Term Security and Economic Power Nexus
Copeland's theory, termed dynamic realism, underscores the correlation between long-term security and economic power for states. He argues that great powers, dependent on trade and investment, maintain moderate behavior levels if positive future trade expectations persist. Conversely, deteriorating trade prospects can lead to aggressive behaviors and threats.
Economic Spheres and Great Power Behavior Expansion
Copeland discusses the significance of great powers establishing robust economic spheres for strategic influence. By examining cases like the US expansion across North America and Asia, he portrays how states seek secure economic spheres to safeguard future trade expectations and deter potential restrictions on market access.
The Impact of Trade and Economic Dependence on Peace and Conflict
Copeland addresses the delicate balance between peace and conflict influenced by a state's economic dependence. He highlights how positive expectations of future trade can serve as a peace-inducing factor, while negative trade expectations can propel a state towards hostile measures. Emphasizing the pivotal role of policymakers, he advocates for a strategic approach to ensure stability and avoid escalation.
Navigating US-China Relations Through a Strategic Approach
Within the context of US-China relations, Copeland advises policymakers to adopt a balanced strategy of deterrence and reassurance. By leveraging America's military strength and economic engagement, he advocates for maintaining a prudent stance to prevent overreaction and sustain positive trade expectations. He warns against triggering negative outcomes by mishandling economic dependence and emphasizes the importance of smart policy decisions to foster stability in East Asia.
Dale Copeland, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia and author of the new book A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, talks about his "dynamic realism" theory of great power war and peace, emphasizing the critical causal role of future trade expectations. Copeland discusses case studies from the American Revolutionary War to the Spanish-American War and the beginnings of the Cold War and then applies his theory to U.S.-China relations across a range of policy areas, with important insights into how to avert a catastrophic war.
