It Could Happen Here

It Could Happen Here Weekly 206

Nov 1, 2025
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INSIGHT

Caribbean Strikes Blur War And Policing

  • The U.S. is applying counterterrorism logic to maritime operations in the Caribbean, striking small vessels and killing civilians.
  • That campaign blends counter-narcotics language with regime-change aims, producing regional diplomatic crises.
INSIGHT

Tren de Aragua Isn't A Trans‑Ocean Cartel

  • Tren de Aragua is primarily a Venezuelan prison-turned street gang focused on extortion and migrant predation, not an international cocaine cartel.
  • Striking boats labeled as cartel vessels therefore likely targets migrant-smuggling or fishermen, not major drug shipments.
INSIGHT

Decapitation Won't Collapse Maduro

  • Military posturing and targeted strikes won't reliably topple Venezuela's regime because power rests with a militarized elite embedded in illicit rents.
  • Counter-narcotics tactics (killing targets at sea) contradict investigative practices needed to prosecute criminal networks.
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