Lucas Shaw, a Bloomberg reporter specializing in media and entertainment, joins to dive into the thrilling 2025 box office draft. They strategize which blockbuster films could be goldmines, tackling the challenges of sequels and audience expectations. The buzz around 'Wicked for Good' and the latest Tom Cruise installment highlights franchise popularity. They also express skepticism about Disney's new live-action films and debate underrated gems that may surprise audiences. It's a lively prediction game, full of movie insights and competitive banter!
The unpredictable nature of the 2025 box office, driven by competition among established franchises and new adaptations, poses significant financial risks for studios.
The box office draft highlights strategic selection, considering market dynamics and film performance potential, amidst an environment of high expectations and budget pressures.
Deep dives
Challenging Movie Landscape for 2025
The 2025 movie release calendar presents a challenging environment for studios, as there are many anticipated films but also significant risks associated with them. While there are sequels and pre-branded properties, the overall lack of high-profile intellectual properties (IPs) suggests that studios are banking on less recognizable brands that might not guarantee blockbuster status. This year's box office is expected to rebound from previous downturns, with domestic numbers sitting at $8.7 billion, a decrease of just 3% from last year. Nonetheless, comparisons to pre-COVID performance indicate a need for strong performances from the films to elevate the overall market.
The Box Office Draft and Its Stakes
The podcast details the strategy and rules of the third annual box office draft, where participants pick films they believe will perform best at the box office. As the participants discuss their picks, they emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential performance of various films. This year, team sizes are increased from five to seven movies to add complexity and to capture more wild card options. The overall tone highlights the competitive nature of the draft while showcasing the unpredictability of the box office landscape.
High Expectations for Big Franchises
The conversation shifts to expectations for major franchises such as 'Avatar' and 'Jurassic World,' both of which are seen as safe picks due to their strong track records. The participants analyze their anticipated performances, with 'Avatar' potentially grossing over $2 billion based on historical data of previous entries. Despite acknowledging the declining trend of the 'Jurassic World' franchise, the belief exists that it will still capture substantial revenue given its established fan base and star cast. The discussion reflects a broader confidence in established properties that can draw audiences even amid risks associated with new and untested films.
The Risks of New Releases and Adaptations
The selection of movies this year includes several adaptations and reboots, prompting dialogue on their market viability. While animated features like 'Zootopia 2' are expected to thrive based on previous successes with children's films, there are mixed feelings about other adaptations such as 'Minecraft' and 'Lilo and Stitch'. These selections showcase the uncertainty surrounding audience reception to newer entries in long-standing properties. Furthermore, the podcast explores how heavy budgets and marketing strategies play pivotal roles in determining whether these films can achieve box office success or become detrimental bombs.
Matt is joined by Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw to conduct the third annual box office draft on ‘The Town.’ Matt and Lucas each draft seven blockbuster movies set to be released in 2025 with the goal of making the most money possible against the production budget. Plus, an added twist that allows each person to saddle the other's team with a movie they believe will bomb.
Click HERE to help those affected by the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles.
For a 20 percent discount on Matt’s Hollywood insider newsletter, ‘What I’m Hearing ...,’ click here.