Fabrizio Cariani, "The Modal Future: A Theory of Future-Directed Thought and Talk" (Cambridge UP, 2021)
Nov 10, 2023
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Fabrizio Cariani challenges the traditional view of the word 'will' and proposes an asymmetric semantics. He explores the similarities between future-directed and counterfactual discourse, defends an extended version of Stalnaker's selectionist semantics, and examines connections to speech act theory and knowledge about the future.
The word 'will' should not be seen as a tense-based mirror image of 'was', but rather has more in common with modal terms like 'would'.
The meaning of 'will' can be explained through an extended version of Stalnaker's selectionist semantics, which selects the possible world in which the assertion is made as the world of evaluation.
Future cognition relies on mental simulation processes that are also involved in counterfactual cognition, suggesting that predictions and evaluations of future-directed statements are grounded in simulations of possible future scenarios.
Deep dives
The Modal Future challenges the traditional view of the word 'will'
The book argues that the word 'will' should not be seen as a tense-based mirror image of the word 'was', but rather has more in common with modal terms like 'would'. The author defends an asymmetric semantics, claiming that future directed discourse is closer to counterfactual discourse than past discourse.
The book discusses the selectionist semantics of 'will'
The author presents an extended version of Stalnaker's selectionist semantics to explain the meaning of 'will'. In this view, 'will' selects the possible world in which the assertion is made as the world of evaluation. The view challenges the necessity model and argues that context determines possible worlds, even in an open future framework.
The book explores the connection between future cognition and counterfactual cognition
The author argues that the same mental simulation process that grounds counterfactual cognition also underlies future cognition. Mental simulation plays a role in making predictions and evaluating counterfactuals and future-directed statements. The view suggests that future cognition is empirically grounded and relies on simulations of possible future scenarios.
The book addresses the puzzle of asymmetry between past and future discourse
The author discusses the puzzle of why statements about the future are seemingly indeterminate when evaluated from a later perspective, while statements about the past are determinate. The view presented suggests that future-directed statements are tolerant of upstream evidence, while past-directed statements have evidential constraints that require causal downstream knowledge. The semantics of 'will' modulates these evidential requirements.
Future cognition and the problem of future knowledge
The book tackles the challenge of explaining how knowledge of the future is possible from an empiricist perspective. The author suggests that cognition of the future involves offline mental simulation processes and evidential constraints. The view offers an alternative explanation for future knowledge that is grounded in experience and simulations of possible futures.
What does “will” mean? A standard view is that it is a tensed mirror-image of “was”, and that the truth-conditions of past and future sentences – “He was late to the event”, “He will be late to the event” – are symmetric. In The Modal Future: A Theory of Future-Directed Thought and Talk (Cambridge UP, 2021), Fabrizio Cariani argues against this tense-based view in favor of an asymmetric semantics in which “will” has more in common with “would” and other modal terms, and in which future-directed discourse is close kin to counterfactual discourse, not past discourse. Cariani, who is professor of philosophy at the University of Maryland at College Park, defends an extended version of Stalnaker’s selectionist semantics to explain the semantics of “will”, and considers how his view intersects with issues in speech act theory, the metaphysics of time, and the possibility of knowledge about the future.
Carrie Figdor is professor of philosophy at the University of Iowa.