Dr. Fredi Otto: Attributing extreme weather to climate change
Dec 14, 2023
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Dr. Fredi Otto, the leader of World Weather Attribution, discusses the team's unique ability to link extreme weather events to climate change within weeks. She emphasizes the importance of timely and specific information. Topics include analyzing extreme weather events in East Africa, the process of attributing them to climate change, changing the narrative around climate change, phasing out fossil fuels, outcomes of the COP28 conference, and air pollution in Dubai.
Dr. Fredi Otto and her team at World Weather Attribution are able to link extreme weather events to climate change faster than ever before, providing concrete, place-based information that connects people's experiences to the science of climate change.
Their work has significant effects, generating major media interest, influencing policy discussions, and leading to improvements in early warning systems and adaptation measures.
Deep dives
The Role of Dr. Freddie Otto and World Weather Attribution
Dr. Freddie Otto and her team at World Weather Attribution are able to link extreme weather events to climate change faster than ever before. Their goal is to provide concrete, place-based information that connects people's experiences to the science of climate change. Rather than waiting years for scientific papers to be published, they conduct their analysis within a week or two after an extreme weather event occurs. By using climate models and weather observations, they determine the extent to which climate change influenced the event. For example, they found that climate change doubled the amount of rainfall in a recent East African rainy season.
The Impact of Rapid Response Climate Science
The work of Dr. Otto and her team has significant effects. Their studies generate a major interest in the media, with around 700 media stories worldwide on average. Their reports are also utilized by organizations like the Red Cross to improve early warning systems and implement adaptation measures. Additionally, politicians reference their studies for policy discussions. While it is difficult to measure the exact impact, Dr. Otto believes their work has played an important role in changing the perception of climate change and how extreme weather events are discussed in the media.
The Urgency for Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
The science is clear that in order to reach the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement, there needs to be a drastic reduction in fossil fuel usage across all sectors. Dr. Otto emphasizes the need to stop burning fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. While carbon capture and storage may have a small role, a dramatic and immediate stop in burning fossil fuels is necessary. The current fossil fuel infrastructure is incompatible with the targets set in the Paris Agreement, and continuing to burn fossil fuels gradually will not suffice.
Extreme weather is being increasingly linked to climate change, thanks to the work of scientists the world over. But Dr. Fredi Otto's contribution is unique: she is getting it done faster. That hurricane, that drought, that wildfire? Her team at World Weather Attribution can say the extent to which climate change was a factor, but within weeks, not years.
In other words, she leads the world's only rapid reaction force of climate scientists. Why she says linking extreme weather events to climate change matters more than ever.
Plus: the agreement that came out of COP28.
And: Niala's Dubai dispatch on the smog blanketing the climate conference
Credits: 1 big thing is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Alexandra Botti, and Jay Cowit. Music is composed by Alex Sugiura. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can send questions, comments and story ideas as a text or voice memo to Niala at 202-918-4893.