Jon Buda and Justin Jackson make predictions for the tech industry, the podcasting space, and the startup ecosystem.
Predictions for 2019
- There will be a global economic downturn. Companies will be looking for more affordable marketing spend. Brands that don't have a strong relationship with their audience will lose.
- This could be increase the number of companies who invest in podcasting. Audio is still a "good deal" compared to other communication channels.
- Related: will we see the big “5” (Squarespace, etc) advertising less?
- 2019 will be the year of non-gaming livestreaming. More programmers, business people, podcasters will be livestreaming. Plus: more audio-livestreaming.
- Related: Podcasting without editing will become more popular. No intro music. Just recorded live with an outline, and published immediately.
- Podcasting will grow to 800,000 shows. (Currently ~619,000 in Apple Podcasts)
- In 2018 Spotify went from 10-25% marketshare of the podcast player market. I think it will grow again to 35%. (Justin admits he was wrong about this tweet).
- Continued focus on "mindful technology." Very possible that iPhone will have a "dumb phone" mode: only texting, phone calls, and GPS. All other apps will disappear from your homescreen when enabled.
- Smart speakers will not have a big effect on podcast consumption. I think they will become more popular, but I don’t see people using them to listen to podcasts. (These folks think it will be big, I disagree. Currently 1% of listenership)
- Apple is going to make a big media move to challenge Netflix and Amazon Prime Video. It will finally break iTunes apart on desktop. Maybe we'll see a standalone desktop Apple Podcasts app?
- More branded podcasts and production companies. (example)
- Dynamic content (outside of advertising) will be bigger.
- More traditional media brands will buy podcast related IP. Podcasts turning into → TV shows. For example: Homecoming on Amazon Video.
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Show notes:
- CleanIn2019.com
- Atomic Habits - Identity
- Ben Orenstein interview on Product People
- Fast Company: Dumb phone
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