In this book, W. Brian Arthur explains how new technologies emerge through a process akin to evolution, where existing technologies combine to form new ones. He introduces the concept of 'combinatorial evolution,' where technologies build upon previous ones, much like a coral reef. Arthur also discusses how technology and science co-evolve in a symbiotic relationship, with each driving the advancement of the other. The book addresses the structural impact of technology on the economy and highlights the intermingling of technology and biology in modern advancements.
The Wind in the Willows is a classic children's novel written by Kenneth Grahame. The story follows the adventures of several anthropomorphic animals—primarily Mole, Rat, Toad, and Badger—as they explore the riverbank and nearby Wild Wood. The novel highlights themes of friendship, nature, and the charm of rural life. It includes various adventures such as Toad's obsession with motorcars, a visit to the Wild Wood, and a climactic battle to reclaim Toad Hall from weasels and stoats. The book is known for its evocative descriptions of the countryside and its engaging characters[1][3][4].
If the economy is better understood as an evolving system, an out-of-equilibrium ecology composed of agents that adapt to one another’s strategies, how does this change the way we think about our future? By drawing new analogies between technology and life, and studying how tools evolve by building on and recombining what has come before, what does this tell us about economics as a sub-process of our self-organizing biosphere? Over the last forty years, previously siloed scientific disciplines have come together with new data-driven methods to trace the outlines of a unifying economic theory, and allow us to design new human systems that anticipate the planet-wide disruptions of our rapidly accelerating age. New stories need to be articulated, ones that start earlier than human history, and in which societies work better when engineered in service to the laws of physics and biology they ultimately follow…
This week’s guest is W. Brian Arthur, External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute, Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, and Visiting Researcher at Xerox PARC. In this second part of our two-episode conversation, we discuss technology as seen through the lens of evolutionary biology, and how he foresees the future of the economy as our labor market and financial systems are increasingly devoured by artificial intelligence.
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Brian’s Website.
Brian’s Google Scholar page.
“Where is technology taking the economy?” in McKinsey, 2017.
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves.
“Punctuated equilibria: the tempo and mode of evolution reconsidered” by Gould & Eldredge.
"A natural bias for simplicity" by Mark Buchanan in Nature Physics.
"Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" by John Maynard Keynes.
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