Top Traders Unplugged

SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

20 snips
Jul 26, 2025
Guest
Andrew Beer
Guest
Tom Wrobel
Tom Wrobel, a macro and discretionary investment strategist from London, and Andrew Beer, a trend replication expert based in Greece, delve into the evolving landscape of trend following. They discuss new research suggesting a shift towards simpler, slower models, raising questions about the future of Commodity Trading Advisors. Andrew critiques the complexity of many strategies, arguing that they may obscure true value and increase costs. This insightful conversation highlights the risks investors face as they navigate increasingly intricate trading methods.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Trend Following Models Evolving Slower

  • Trend following models have been evolving toward slower moving averages over the last 15 years.
  • Slower models correlate better with CTA indices during market stress and provide adaptability with some short-term models.
INSIGHT

Medium-Term Trend Models Underperform

  • Medium-term trend models may underperform by missing benefits of both long- and short-term models.
  • A blend of multiple model speeds, rather than a fixed medium-term model, appears more effective for CTAs.
ADVICE

Avoid Complexity, Diversify Managers

  • Avoid relying on complex bottom-up trend models with many parameters due to model risk.
  • Use multiple managers or diversified approaches to reduce single-manager and model risk in trend following.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app