The Macro Trading Floor
Macro Traders Reflections
Mar 29, 2024
Brent, co-host of the podcast, and Alf discuss macro data, low volatility market regime, common macro traders' mistakes, risk/reward in insurance trades. They also share non-trading reads useful for traders and investors. The podcast covers Fed's Waller speech, Japan, China, and offers insights on market trends, trade ideas, and trading strategies.
36:59
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Quick takeaways
- Variance in trading can lead to losses even with a 55% winning rate, challenging human ability to handle unpredictable outcomes.
- Dollar CNH trade offers positive carry trade with long tail risk, signaling changes in China's economy for short and long-term gains.
Deep dives
Understanding Variance in Trading
Variance plays a crucial role in trading as illustrated by the fact that a 55% winning rate can still lead to losing money over an entire year due to the impact of variance. This challenges the human mind's innate ability to process scenarios with unpredictable outcomes.
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