Brent, co-host of the podcast, and Alf discuss macro data, low volatility market regime, common macro traders' mistakes, risk/reward in insurance trades. They also share non-trading reads useful for traders and investors. The podcast covers Fed's Waller speech, Japan, China, and offers insights on market trends, trade ideas, and trading strategies.
Variance in trading can lead to losses even with a 55% winning rate, challenging human ability to handle unpredictable outcomes.
Dollar CNH trade offers positive carry trade with long tail risk, signaling changes in China's economy for short and long-term gains.
Deep dives
Understanding Variance in Trading
Variance plays a crucial role in trading as illustrated by the fact that a 55% winning rate can still lead to losing money over an entire year due to the impact of variance. This challenges the human mind's innate ability to process scenarios with unpredictable outcomes.
Dollar CNH Trade Opportunity
The Dollar CNH trade presents an intriguing opportunity due to its positive carry trade aspect despite being long tail risk. The movement in Dollar CNH is closely monitored as a signal of potential changes in China's economic landscape, offering a trade with both short-term gains and long-term anticipation.
Pitfalls of Misunderstanding Options Trading
A humorous yet educational anecdote is shared about a trader's attempt to circumvent high borrowing costs by buying a put option, not realizing that the implied borrow cost is factored into options pricing. This highlights the importance of understanding the nuances of options trading.
Learning from Investing Mishaps
The podcast shares a lighthearted story about an individual attempting to exploit the dynamics of ultra short and ultra long ETFs without accounting for transaction costs, emphasizing the need to consider all relevant factors in investment strategies.
Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.
Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and investors.