Guy Kawasaki's Remarkable People cover image

Guy Kawasaki's Remarkable People

Allan Lichtman: The Science of Political Prediction

Jul 17, 2024
Join Guy Kawasaki as he talks to Allan Lichtman, the renowned political historian and predictor of presidential elections. They discuss Lichtman's 'Keys to the White House' model, challenging polling wisdom. Explore the dangers to American democracy and historical patterns in predicting the future. Gain insights into the current political landscape and the importance of being informed.
37:42

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Alan Lichtman's model focuses on historical patterns to predict electoral outcomes.
  • Polls are criticized for their unreliability and significant margins of error in forecasting elections.

Deep dives

Development of the Keys to the White House Model

Alan Lichtman, an acclaimed historian, collaborated with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Kailas Borok in 1981 to create the Keys to the White House model. This model uses 13 true-false criteria to predict the outcome of presidential elections based on the strength and performance of the White House party. By redefining elections in earthquake terms, they analyzed historical elections and identified patterns associated with stability or turnover using earthquake prediction methods.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode