Guy Kawasaki's Remarkable People Allan Lichtman: The Science of Political Prediction
Jul 17, 2024
Join Guy Kawasaki as he talks to Allan Lichtman, the renowned political historian and predictor of presidential elections. They discuss Lichtman's 'Keys to the White House' model, challenging polling wisdom. Explore the dangers to American democracy and historical patterns in predicting the future. Gain insights into the current political landscape and the importance of being informed.
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How An Earthquake Scientist Sparked The Model
- Allan Lichtman describes meeting Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok and forming an unlikely partnership to model elections like earthquakes.
- They analyzed elections from 1860 onward and derived 13 true/false keys that distinguish stability from upheaval.
Elections Are Votes On The Incumbent Party
- The Keys treat elections as a vote on the incumbent party's strength rather than candidate personalities or daily polls.
- A simple rule decides outcomes: six or more false keys produce an electoral 'earthquake.'
Don't Treat Polls As Predictions
- Lichtman warns that polls are snapshots, not reliable long-term predictors, and media overuse them for daily coverage.
- Avoid making strategic decisions based solely on poll leads because polls suffer systematic nonresponse and turnout uncertainties.