#55 – Baum on the Long-Term Future of Human Civilisation

In this episode I talk to Seth Baum. Seth is an interdisciplinary researcher working across a wide range of fields in natural and social science, engineering, philosophy, and policy. His primary research focus is global catastrophic risk. He also works in astrobiology. He is the Co-Founder (with Tony Barrett) and Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. He is also a Research Affiliate of the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. We talk about the importance of studying the long-term future of human civilisation, and map out four possible trajectories for the long-term future.

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Show Notes

• 0:00 – Introduction
• 1:39 – Why did Seth write about the long-term future of human civilisation?
• 5:15 – Why should we care about the long-term future? What is the long-term future?
• 13:12 – How can we scientifically and ethically study the long-term future?
• 16:04 – Is it all too speculative?
• 20:48 – Four possible futures, briefly sketched: (i) status quo; (ii) catastrophe; (iii) technological transformation; and (iv) astronomical
• 23:08 – The Status Quo Trajectory – Keeping things as they are
• 28:45 – Should we want to maintain the status quo?
• 33:50 – The Catastrophe Trajectory – Awaiting the likely collapse of civilisation
• 38:58 – How could we restore civilisation post-collapse? Should we be working on this now?
• 44:00 – Are we under-investing in research into post-collapse restoration?
• 49:00 – The Technological Transformation Trajectory – Radical change through technology
• 52:35 – How desirable is radical technological change?
• 56:00 – The Astronomical Trajectory – Colonising the solar system and beyond
• 58:40 – Is the colonisation of space the best hope for humankind?
• 1:07:22 – How should the study of the long-term future proceed from here?

 

Relevant Links

• Seth’s homepage
• The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
• “Long-Term Trajectories for Human Civilisation” by Baum et al
• “The Perils of Short-Termism: Civilisation’s Greatest Threat” by Fisher, BBC News
• The Knowledge by Lewis Dartnell
• “Space Colonization and the Meaning of Life” by Baum, Nautilus
• “Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development” by Nick Bostrom
• “Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering” by Kaj Sotala and Lucas Gloor
• “Space Colonization and Suffering Risks” by Phil Torres
• “Thomas Hobbes in Space: The Problem of Intergalactic War” by John Danaher