Doug Irwin, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth, dives into the chaos stirred by President Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports. He discusses how this unexpected move triggered a surge in New York futures and shaken global markets. The conversation also touches on the broader implications of tariff strategies on the U.S. economy, the mining industry, and investor behavior. Irwin offers insights into how such policies challenge established economic norms and what they mean for future growth and trade relations.
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insights INSIGHT
Tariffs Cause Near-Term Growth Slowdown
Tariffs create a near-term economic soft patch by weakening private domestic demand.
Incentives in legislation for capital spending will better support growth in 2026 and beyond.
insights INSIGHT
Capital Spending Multiplies Growth
Capital spending is about 14% of GDP but has a strong multiplier effect.
Investment booms in states show how capital spending boosts local economies and jobs.
insights INSIGHT
Consumer Spending Slows But Holds
The consumer is slowing spending due to tariffs and uncertainty, except on clothing.
Despite stalling, consumer spending is unlikely to cause a recession soon.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 9th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Strategist at Piper Sandler, joins to talk about the lack of job growth in the private sector and whether we could see an economic boom from a tax cut-tariff policy. Investors will parse minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting for indications on whether officials are closer to lowering interest rates, with swaps almost fully pricing two quarter-point cuts until the end of the year. 2) Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the impact of the reflationary narrative on Treasuries. Treasuries are holding their ground following the longest streak of declines since April as investors look ahead to a US debt auction and the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting. 3) Doug Irwin, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth, joins to discuss the latest developments on President Trump's unfolding tariff strategy. President Trump sowed fresh chaos in metals markets by indicating the US would implement a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports, spurring a record spike in New York futures and a drop in the global benchmark. The plan, announced in an apparently off-the-cuff comment to reporters, marks the latest twist in a tumultuous period for industrial commodities, as the US leader aims to encourage more mining and smelting at home. 4) Leslie Vinjamuri, President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, joins in her new role to discuss the political and economic priorities of the Trump administration, as well as the admin's global intervention in Iran and Ukraine. 5) Oleksandr Komarov, CEO at Kyivstar, joins to discuss his company's role in Ukraine's recovery and construction as the US recommits to sending weapons amid continued Russian attacks. Russia launched a record number of drones and missiles at Ukraine on Wednesday after US President Trump reiterated his displeasure with Vladimir Putin and confirmed he’s sending more defensive weapons to Kyiv.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
