Artem Fokin's take on Burford's YPF summary judgement ruling $BUR

Apr 10, 2023

Artem Fokin revisits Burford's YPF ruling, discussing validation of the business, risks and appeals, estimated proceeds, cash flow, and asset recovery. Insights on Argentina's options, capital plans, monetizing stakes, and shareholder returns are explored. Legal intricacies, financial analysis, and international dynamics surrounding the case are dissected, emphasizing implications for the company's valuation and potential strategies for maximizing returns.

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Introduction

00:00 • 2min

Impact of Summary Judgment Ruling on Burford in YPF Peterson Case

01:39 • 12min

Exploring Critical Dates and Valuation Impact in Share Takeover

13:21 • 5min

Legal Analysis and Currency Conversion Implications

17:55 • 4min

Navigating Complexities of Financial Waterfalls and Lawsuit Settlements

21:56 • 9min

Risks and Implications of YPF Summary Judgment Ruling

30:42 • 18min

Navigating Complex Legal Settlements and International Dynamics

48:15 • 12min

In-depth Analysis of Financial Judgment Ruling and Sponsorship Message

01:00:26 • 2min

Maximizing Returns and Shareholder Returns

01:02:13 • 5min

Analyzing Boud for Njords' Valuation and Accounting Practices

01:07:20 • 19min

Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the third time) to update his thesis on Burfurd (BUR) on the heels of their big YPF summary judgement ruling against Argentina.

For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/

Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0

Muddy Waters BUR case: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/mw-is-short/

Artem's response: http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2019_09_09_Burford_Muddy_Waters_Dreams_of_Black_Cat_That_Just_Is_Not_There_by_Caro-Kann_Capital.pdf Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense

[2:33] Initial thoughts on Burford on the heels of the YPF summary judgement ruling

[6:30] How winning this case validates the Burford business

[9:03] Why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[16:25] Cont'd on why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?

[21:26] Understanding the mechanics of the waterfall payments

[30:37] Largest risks to Burford now; odds Argentina wins on appeal?

[33:39] Clarifying the mechanics of an appeal

[36:48] Estimated proceeds the Burford can actually collect

[44:59] What kind of cash flow is going to come into the company?

[55:13] Burford's asset recovery business

[59:04] Argentina's options if they want to stay in the international business community

[1:01:28] Capital allocation plans Burford could do

[1:06:42] Monetizing stakes

[1:17:31] Thoughts on this SEC fair value discussion they're having

[1:22:32] Quick update on Burford's business Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/