EP 20: The Market Mind Hypothesis (with Patrick Schotanus)
Nov 28, 2023
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Cognitive economist Patrick Schotanus discusses his book 'The Market Mind Hypothesis' exploring flaws in economics and finance. He challenges the concept of the rational economic man and highlights the connection between markets and minds. The podcast delves into the role of consciousness and inter-subjectivity, explores the relationship between Adam Smith and cognitive economics, and discusses the impact of artificial intelligence on market operators.
The Market Mind Hypothesis challenges the mechanical paradigm in mainstream economics and emphasizes the importance of understanding the collective consciousness of markets.
Mainstream economics treats the economy and market as machines devoid of consciousness, leading to policies that overlook the complexities of human mentality and the impact of collective consciousness.
The Market Mind Hypothesis proposes that markets possess a collective consciousness known as the market mind, which influences market prices and requires new research methods to capture the complexities of mood and consciousness in markets.
Deep dives
The MMH: A New Approach to Economics
The Market Mind Hypothesis (MMH) is a post-cognitive interpretation of cognitive economics, aiming to revamp the understanding of economics. It focuses on improving our understanding of the financial markets and the collective mindset of investors. The MMH is informed by cognitive science, which recognizes the mind as embodied, embedded, active, and extended. It challenges the flawed mechanical worldview of mainstream economics, which treats individuals and the market as mechanical entities that can be controlled and engineered. The MMH emphasizes the importance of capturing market mood, distinct from market sentiment, to gain a better grasp of the principle of motion of human society in the core of economics.
The Blind Spot in Mainstream Economics
Mainstream economics, also known as mechanical economics, follows a flawed mechanical paradigm that ignores the reality of consciousness in markets. This mechanical worldview treats the economy and the market as machines, and individuals as robots, devoid of consciousness. This paradigm leads to policies, regulations, and practices that do not consider the complexities of human mentality and the impact of collective consciousness in markets. It results in the mechanization of economic analysis and the failure to capture phenomena such as mood, reflexivity, and collective intelligence. The MMH challenges this paradigm and calls for a shift towards a deeper understanding of the mind-matter interaction in the economic system.
The Market Mind: Consciousness in Markets
The MMH proposes that markets possess a collective consciousness, known as the market mind, which is formed by the interactions of conscious investors and their technologies. This collective mindset manifests in market prices and captures the informational exchange and mood of the market. Prices reflect not only fundamental information, but also the mood and sentiment of investors, extending the awareness of individual investors to a larger collective. Understanding the market mind requires new research methods and tools inspired by cognitive science, as traditional analysis, such as technical analysis, falls short in capturing the complexities of mood and consciousness in markets.
The Need for New Tools and Methods
The mechanical analysis methods currently used in economics and finance fail to capture the dynamic nature and mood of markets. The MMH calls for the development of new research methods and tools that draw from cognitive science and other disciplines to better understand the complexities of consciousness and mood in markets. These new tools and methods should go beyond traditional technical analysis and incorporate a deeper understanding of collective intelligence, mood, and reflexivity. By embracing these new approaches, economists and analysts can gain deeper insights into market behavior and improve their understanding of the interactions between mind and matter in the economic system.
The Future of Economics and the Market Mind Hypothesis
The MMH presents a new approach to economics that challenges the flawed mechanical worldview of mainstream economics. It emphasizes the importance of capturing market mood and understanding the collective mindset of investors. The MMH calls for interdisciplinary collaboration between cognitive science, economics, and other fields to develop new tools, methods, and research projects that can provide a deeper understanding of consciousness and mood in markets. By embracing this new perspective, economists and practitioners can move towards a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the economic system, driving the future of economics towards a new economic enlightenment.
Welcome to a special, extended episode recorded live at the Library of Mistakes on 15 November 2023. Cognitive economist and investment 'pracademic' Patrick Schotanus discusses his important new book The Market Mind Hypothesis, with an introduction from Russell Napier. Drawing on the thinking of Adam Smith, The Market Mind Hypothesis touches on key issues in economics, investing, and cognitive science, leading to insights that can improve markets, make investing more sustainable, increase the effectiveness of public policy and benefit society.
The two quotes that Patrick refers to in his talk are as follows:
"Now the issue, as is plain, relates to the treatment of 'consciousness' in human beings. The essence is [economics'] iniststence that we ignore... the existence of conscousness... In oppositioon to this view, I propose... that we cannot treat human beings as... mechanisms, and that we do not want to do so even if it were possible." Frank Knight 1925
The global behavor of the market... is reminiscent of... the emergence of consciousness." Didier Sornette 2003
[The Library of Mistakes runs an outstanding course called the Practical History of Financial Markets. To find out more, go to: www.libraryofmistakes.com/course]
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