The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is the US labor market getting better or worse?
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Nov 20, 2025 The labor market presents a paradox, showing both strength and weakness simultaneously. Darius explores how varying interpretations of job data impact equities and bonds. He discusses the implications of the Fed's unclear policies, which seem to favor high-income households over others. The conversation weighs two potential paths for the economy: a recession or a broad boom. Additionally, there are cautionary insights on retail leverage and shorting, highlighting the dangers for individual investors.
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Labor Market Sends Conflicting Signals
- The U.S. labor market is sending mixed signals that support both optimistic and pessimistic views.
- This ambiguity increases dispersion among FOMC members and lowers the probability of a December cut.
Markets Read The Same Data Differently
- Investors selectively interpret the September jobs report to fit narratives across asset classes.
- Equities focus on payroll gains while bonds highlight rising unemployment and slower wage growth.
The Fed's Half-Hearted Policy Hurts Many
- The Fed's current policy stance is maddeningly ambiguous and sits between tight and easy.
- That middle ground hurts low- and median-income households while favoring high-income households and large corporations.