Geopolitical Dynamics in Syria

The recent capture of Aleppo by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham signifies a pivotal shift in Syria’s ongoing civil war. The population dynamics highlight that much of Syria’s populace resides east of the Lebanon mountains in areas where agriculture is possible, creating a focal point for conflict. The Alawite-led government, currently in power, has historically relied on a coalition of minority groups to maintain control over the Sunni majority, which has often sought to assert itself against minority rule. As external support for the government wavers, particularly from Russia and Iran, the power dynamics are expected to shift, potentially igniting renewed conflict.