Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, shares insights on market drawdowns and investor expectations in a climate of rising inflation. Ivan Feinseth, Senior Partner & CIO at Tigress Financial Partners, provides a deep dive into Nvidia's earnings, analyzing its influence on the broader market. They discuss the nuances of consumer confidence, the role of artificial intelligence, and emerging investment opportunities in the tech sector, all while navigating the complexities posed by economic trends and political headlines.
Persistent inflation, currently around 3% to 3.5%, challenges the Fed's monetary policy and keeps interest rates high.
Investors should adopt a long-term outlook as high valuations in tech stocks risk corrections amid volatile market conditions.
Deep dives
Sticky Inflation Trends
Inflation continues to present a challenge, with indicators suggesting it remains persistently high. Observations from consumer surveys indicate growing expectations of even higher inflation levels, which the Federal Reserve views as a sign of unanchored inflation expectations. Current inflation is estimated at around 3% to 3.5%, a notable increase from previous year rates. This persistent inflation may keep interest rates relatively high despite movements in the bond market.
Impact of Fiscal Policy
The Federal Reserve is expected to adapt its approach to monetary policy amid new fiscal strategies proposed by the administration. The Fed's current wait-and-see stance regarding tariffs and budget impacts shows a need for a more integrated understanding of these policy moves. As the government implements various fiscal measures, the Fed may need to align its policies accordingly to maintain economic stability. Without this adjustment, expectations remain that the Fed will hold off on significant interest rate changes until the market stabilizes.
Structural Changes in Global Economy
The concept of 'segmentation' in the global economy reflects a reversal of globalization that is likely to keep inflation pressures elevated. Economic difficulties in Europe and China further exacerbate this situation, although the U.S. economy shows some resilience. An increasing reliance on tariffs and a focus on reshaping trade deals highlights the impact of these structural shifts. As companies adjust to these changes, higher production costs could lead to prolonged inflationary scenarios.
Market Participation and Valuation Considerations
Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective when navigating market conditions marked by volatility and news cycles. High valuations, especially among major tech stocks, necessitate solid performance metrics to justify these prices; a misstep could lead to significant corrections. Despite strong earnings reports, many companies may not meet elevated market expectations, which could dampen investor sentiment. Consequently, caution is warranted as valuations adjust to meet the reality of market conditions and economic indicators.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyFebruary 26th, 2025 Featuring:
Jim Bianco, president at Bianco Research, joins to discuss the "Mar-A-Lago Accord" that's making waves in financial media, as well as his outlook for rates and the US economy
Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, discusses the latest market drawdown and consumer and investor expectations, and how Nvidia earnings could change that
Ivan Feinseth, Senior Partner & CIO at Tigress Financial Partners, offers an extended preview of Nvidia earnings