SI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard Brennan

28 snips

Apr 5, 2025

In this session, Richard Brennan, a seasoned trend follower who prioritizes processes over predictions, dives deep into the current market uncertainties shaping investor sentiment. He discusses the critical role of trend-following strategies amidst evolving financial landscapes and the challenges of predictive limitations in dynamic markets. Brennan also connects philosophical ideas to trading, emphasizing the significance of understanding complex adaptive systems and the interplay of technology and global dynamics, urging a disciplined approach in trading.

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INSIGHT

Shifting Market Sentiment

Richard Brennan views Q1 2024 as a sentiment shift from investors clinging to past market stability.
He observes a growing acceptance of a disrupted past and a move towards a new market regime.

ANECDOTE

Remembering Bill Dunn

Niels mentions Bill Dunn's passing and his legacy in trend following.
He shares Dunn's quote: "The best time to invest in trend following is at the bottom of a drawdown; the second best time is today."

INSIGHT

Trend Following as a Philosophy

Richard Brennan connects trend following to his broader philosophy and fascination with science.
He sees trend following as aligning with a process-oriented worldview.

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Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?

12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products

15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q1

25:18 - Industry performance numbers

26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading

41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe

55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower

01:13:36 - What is up for next week?

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