Science Quickly
An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?
Feb 12, 2025
Lee Billings, Senior space and physics editor for Scientific American, brings his expertise in space exploration to discuss the alarming asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. He dives into how astronomers use sophisticated technologies like the ATLAS system to track such asteroids. The conversation also highlights the importance of international collaboration in preparing for potential impact scenarios, drawing parallels to historical events like the Tunguska incident, and stressing the need for continuous monitoring and updates.
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Quick takeaways
- The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, necessitating ongoing monitoring and assessment of its trajectory.
- International efforts, including possible kinetic impactors or nuclear solutions, are being discussed to prepare for potential asteroid collision scenarios.
Deep dives
Asteroid Collision Risk and Detection
An asteroid named 2024 YR4 has been identified as having a 2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This figure, which is above the threshold that triggers significant concern, was determined using the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) based in Chile. The detection process involves astronomers comparing images over time to identify moving objects against the static backdrop of stars. The ongoing analysis of the asteroid's orbit presents a dynamic situation, with estimates of collision risk fluctuating as more data is gathered.
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