An Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2032. What Can We Do about It?
Feb 12, 2025
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Lee Billings, Senior space and physics editor for Scientific American, brings his expertise in space exploration to discuss the alarming asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. He dives into how astronomers use sophisticated technologies like the ATLAS system to track such asteroids. The conversation also highlights the importance of international collaboration in preparing for potential impact scenarios, drawing parallels to historical events like the Tunguska incident, and stressing the need for continuous monitoring and updates.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, necessitating ongoing monitoring and assessment of its trajectory.
International efforts, including possible kinetic impactors or nuclear solutions, are being discussed to prepare for potential asteroid collision scenarios.
Deep dives
Asteroid Collision Risk and Detection
An asteroid named 2024 YR4 has been identified as having a 2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This figure, which is above the threshold that triggers significant concern, was determined using the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) based in Chile. The detection process involves astronomers comparing images over time to identify moving objects against the static backdrop of stars. The ongoing analysis of the asteroid's orbit presents a dynamic situation, with estimates of collision risk fluctuating as more data is gathered.
Response Planning for Potential Threats
In light of the asteroid's increasing visibility, discussions have surfaced regarding the need for preemptive action in case a collision becomes likely. The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, associated with the UN, is tasked with coordinating international responses for such threats. Proposed responses include either kinetic impactors, which can deflect the asteroid's trajectory, or more drastic measures like nuclear options. The urgency of this planning is emphasized by the limited time frame remaining before the asteroid is obscured from view, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring.
Potential Impact Scenarios
The size and composition of the asteroid are critical in assessing the potential effects of an impact. It is estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters in diameter, likely categorized as a stony asteroid, which would break apart in the atmosphere rather than striking the surface intact. Past similar events, such as the Tunguska incident, demonstrate the kind of destruction that could occur, especially if it were to hit a populated area. Nonetheless, the statistical likelihood suggests that an ocean impact remains the most probable outcome, which would lessen potential damage significantly.
The European Space Agency recently announced that the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2 percent chance of hitting our planet in 2032. The probability of impact is difficult to predict exactly and will be clearer in 2028, when 2024 YR4 will whiz by us. But if the asteroid really is on a collision course with Earth, what can we do about it? Senior space and physics editor Lee Billings joins host Rachel Feltman to unpack this headline-making story.
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Science Quickly is produced by Rachel Feltman, Fonda Mwangi, Kelso Harper, Madison Goldberg, Naeem Amarsy and Jeff DelViscio. This episode was hosted by Rachel Feltman with guest Lee Billings. Our show is edited by Jeff DelViscio with fact-checking by Shayna Posses and Aaron Shattuck. The theme music was composed by Dominic Smith.