US Rates Strategy: Unpacking a big week for US rates
Jun 15, 2024
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Phoebe White and Jay Barry discuss the impact of recent events in Europe on US rates, the downside surprise in May CPI, and their expectations for US rates and inflation markets. They anticipate the first rate cut in November despite weakness in core inflation.
French political events in Europe impact market spreads, US treasury liquidity concerns are more technical than crisis-indicative.
Deep dives
Global Market Developments Impacting US Treasury Markets
The episode delves into global market movements, particularly in Europe, where French political developments caused ripples in the market, leading to wider spreads in government bonds. Concerns regarding liquidity in the US treasury market were addressed, with insights suggesting that the dispersion observed, especially in shorter sectors of the curve, was more technical in nature and might not indicate impending financial crises.
Analysis of May CPI Report and Inflation Trends
The podcast discusses the May CPI report, highlighting a welcomed downside surprise in Core CPI along with softness in energy and food components. Detailed examination of core goods and services inflation trends, especially focusing on factors like auto insurance and airfares, hints at the underlying dynamics affecting inflation rates and the potential for moderating auto insurance inflation.
Implications of Federal Reserve's Stance on Inflation Markets and Treasury Yields
The conversation touches upon the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and market reactions, which have led to shifts in inflation expectations. Insights suggest that the Fed's patience in assessing inflation data and potential rate cuts have impacted market behaviors, influencing treasury yields and inflation markets. The episode also alludes to potential range trading scenarios and tactical movements in yield rates amidst evolving market conditions.
On this episode, Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent events in Europe on Treasury market liquidity, as well as their takeaways from the downside surprise in May CPI and their thoughts ahead for US rates and inflation markets. They are hesitant to take too much signal from the weakness in core inflation in May and still expect the first rate cut in November.