Common Sense with Dan Carlin

Show 322 - Betting on Long Shots

12 snips
Sep 1, 2021
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INSIGHT

Disengagements Are Inherently Messy

  • Disengaging from a conflict is inherently risky and often messy, like turning a boat in a storm.
  • Waiting for a perfect moment to leave can trap you in a war for decades.
INSIGHT

Afghanistan Is A Longstanding Blowback Story

  • Afghanistan's instability traces back decades and includes superpower meddling and blowback.
  • Past interventions by Britain and the Soviet Union show why great powers struggle to hold Afghanistan.
INSIGHT

Technology Doesn't Eliminate Local Complexity

  • Hubris and technological confidence make militaries underestimate local factors and overvalue their advantages.
  • Superior weapons or tech rarely negate complex social, tribal, and geographic realities.
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