Will Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Transform Global Trade Policy?

In this episode, the discussion centers on President Trump’s ambiguous ‘Liberation Day’ and its potential to redefine global trade policy. The analysis highlights key dates when retaliatory tariffs from Canada and a 25% U.S. auto tariff could set the stage for a dramatic escalation in tariffs, possibly raising U.S. rates from about 2.5% to as high as 35%. The podcast outlines tactical portfolio strategies that favor long risk assets while hedging against trade policy volatility, supported by quantitative signals of economic slowdown and a late-cycle, policy-uncertain market regime. It also examines risks such as a significant contraction in U.S. GDP and challenges to the dollar’s dominance, alongside opportunities for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin. Finally, the episode addresses whether U.S. equities can sustain outperformance amid a potential secular decline of the dollar, urging tactical diversification while holding core positions.