MH+ Ep.25 Talking Charts (guest: Boris Schlossberg)
Jan 16, 2024
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Boris Schlossberg, Managing Director of BKForex, discusses market complacency and interest rates as a macro indicator. They explore underappreciated geopolitical risks like the situation in Israel. The podcast also covers the rotation out of MAG 7 stocks and observations on intraday moves in the market. They discuss Nancy Pelosi's trading strategy, leap call spreads, and the importance of being humble when predicting market trends.
Rising interest rates and the impact on the federal budget could hinder economic growth and contribute to a broader market sell-off.
Implementing long-term call spread options can reduce exposure to market volatility while offering leveraged upside potential.
Deep dives
Concerns Over Market Danger: A Shift in Outlook
In this podcast episode, Boris Schlossberg expresses his growing bearishness about the market after previously being bullish. He highlights a significant danger he believes many are underestimating: the impact of interest rate servicing on the federal budget. A potential rise in interest rates could lead to a higher percentage of the budget being allocated to interest payments, which in turn could hinder economic growth. He also discusses geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East. Boris argues that these factors, along with the overvaluation of stocks like Apple and potential earnings guidance, could contribute to a broader sell-off in the market rather than just a correction in the MAG 7 stocks. He concludes by analyzing the recent behavior of the US dollar, yen, and Bitcoin, suggesting that they may offer insights into market sentiment and potential trends.
Nancy Pelosi's Trading Strategy: A Lesson in Options
The podcast explores Nancy Pelosi's trading strategy of using long-dated call options to mimic equity holdings. Boris examines this strategy and suggests that retail traders could implement similar strategies by using long-term call spread options. He highlights the advantages of this approach as it reduces exposure to market volatility and various option Greeks while offering leveraged upside potential. Boris emphasizes that these options should be viewed as long-term position plays, as their slower price movement requires patience. He believes that this strategy could be an intelligent alternative for investors looking to express their positions over an extended period.
Observation Over Prediction: The Humility of Speculation
Boris Schlossberg shares a humbling perspective on market prediction, referring to a statement by a Hollywood screenwriter: 'Nobody knows nothing.' He encourages market participants to observe and intelligently speculate, acknowledging the uncertainty that comes with predicting market turns. Boris highlights the importance of remaining humble and flexible in one's approach to trading and investing. He also invites listeners to engage with him through his social media accounts and BK Traders platform, emphasizing the value of respectful discussion and differing viewpoints in the market.
On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes back Boris Schlossberg, Managing Director of BKForex. Pat and Boris talk charts including, equities, the Mag 7 and much more.