The Milk Road Show A Massive Liquidity Shift Is Coming: How It Could Flip the Entire Crypto Market w/ David Duong
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Nov 24, 2025 David Duong, Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, dives deep into the current state of the crypto market following a significant crash. He explains why liquidity is the key indicator to watch, detailing its 110-day lag effect on price movements. Duong discusses the psychological impact of the four-year cycle and how miner behaviors and ETF dynamics have changed selling pressures. He also examines whether AI investments are diverting capital from crypto and explores the market's potential mispricing of upcoming economic shifts.
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Liquidity Beats Naive Money-Supply Overlays
- David Duong argues liquidity is the key driver for Bitcoin and crypto prices, not naive overlays of global M2.
- Coinbase custom-weights global M2 and finds a ~110-day lag where liquidity flows correlate best with crypto moves.
December Could Flip Liquidity Bullish
- Duong expects liquidity to inflect higher in December as QT ends and rate-cut expectations rise.
- That macro shift could support a crypto recovery into year-end if markets price in Fed easing.
Use A 110-Day Liquidity Lag
- Track liquidity with a lag: Duong's regression shows ~110 days from money-supply change to market impact.
- Use that lag to time allocations into risk assets as rates and liquidity conditions evolve.