Daily Politics from the New Statesman It's official: Labour are in third place
Jan 7, 2026
Ben Walker, a senior data journalist, discusses recent unsettling polling trends, revealing Labour's drop to third place behind the Tories and Reform UK. He breaks down how this shift could complicate local campaigns and hint at Labour's vulnerability in upcoming elections. The conversation also touches on the challenges of tactical voting, the emergence of a multi-party system, and shifting voter priorities. Walker argues that for Labour to regain its footing, a leadership change may be necessary to shake off its 'toxic' image.
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Polling Shows A New Multi-Party Reality
- Reform UK leads national polling around 29% while Labour has fallen to about 18% and the Conservatives sit at 19% after a small bounce.
- The Greens and Lib Dems have risen to roughly 15% and 13% respectively, reshaping the national party landscape.
Local Organising Determines Seat Outcomes
- Local party organisation matters hugely as apathetic Labour local parties are ceding ground to other progressive challengers.
- Ben Walker warns that weak local campaigning risks dozens or even a hundred Labour MPs losing relevance to rivals like Plaid or Greens.
By-Election Examples Show Tactical Surprises
- Ben Walker cites the Caerphilly by-election where Plaid positioned themselves as the anti-Reform option and benefited from tactical voting.
- He also points to Runcorn where Reform won a by-election by six votes, showing how local dynamics decide outcomes.