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HSBC Global Viewpoint: Banking and Markets
The Macro Brief – Timing of rate cuts
Feb 2, 2024
Discussion on recent Fed and BOE meetings and the expectation of rate cuts. Analysis of inflation, economic growth, and policy rates. Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy. Limitations of fiscal policy and potential for tax cuts. Outlook for oil markets and supply chain disruption.
11:33
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Quick takeaways
- The Federal Reserve may not be confident enough about the inflation outlook to begin reducing rates in March, with the first rate cut expected in June and 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts in 2024.
- The Bank of England's shift towards a possible rate cut is indicated by the absence of previous guidance about potential rate hikes, a language suggesting a review of the current stance, and a split committee vote, with the first rate cut expected in August.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook
The podcast discusses the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve and the potential for rate cuts. While the market is pricing in substantial rate cuts for this year, Chair Powell indicated that the policymakers may not have enough confidence about the inflation outlook to begin reducing rates in March. The podcast's own forecast suggests the first rate cut may come in June, with expectations of 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts in 2024.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode