‘Devastating’: Why the Liberals are preferencing One Nation
Apr 29, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, Mike Seccombe, the national correspondent for The Saturday Paper, dives into a surprising political shift in Australia. Under Peter Dutton, the Coalition is now favoring One Nation, signifying a dramatic change in their long-standing opposition. Seccombe explores the implications of this alliance and what it means for traditional Liberal values. He also examines One Nation's controversial history and questions whether this strategy could harm the party's future. It's a provocative look at evolving political dynamics!
The Coalition's preference deal with One Nation signifies a drastic ideological shift, prioritizing electoral gains over long-standing opposition to extreme views.
Concerns arise that aligning with One Nation may alienate traditional Liberal voters, as historical trends suggest these voters may not support the Coalition in return.
Deep dives
Coalition's Shift Towards One Nation
The Coalition has formed a preference deal with One Nation, placing them second on how-to-vote cards in numerous seats, marking a significant shift in their long-standing opposition to the party’s extreme views. Historically, the Liberal Party has distanced itself from One Nation, especially after Pauline Hanson’s controversial rise in the late 1990s, when their opposition was principled against racism and prejudice. This new arrangement, aimed at bolstering Peter Dutton's electoral chances, indicates a willingness to collaborate with a party that the Coalition has opposed for decades. Such a decision raises questions about the ideological direction of the Liberals under Dutton's leadership and whether it aligns with traditional values or reflects a new, more conservative strategy.
Impact of Preference Deals on Elections
The new preference deal could influence voting patterns, potentially benefiting the Coalition in the immediate term but posing risks in the long run. Recent data shows that voters are less likely to follow how-to-vote cards compared to previous decades, suggesting that the electorate has become more tactical in their voting choices. Historical trends indicate that voters who support right-wing parties like One Nation do not always return their preferences to the Coalition, which raises concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy. If voters react negatively to the partnership, the Coalition may lose more support than it gains, given the divisive nature of One Nation's policies.
Reactions from Liberal Party Elders
Many former Liberal politicians express dismay at the Coalition's decision to align with One Nation, reflecting a significant ideological departure from the party's past. Jim Barron, the former state director who disendorsed Hanson in 1996, described the current situation as ‘devastating’ and indicative of the Liberal Party's normalization of previously fringe views. This sentiment is echoed by other party elders who fear that embracing One Nation compromises the core values that the party once upheld against such ideologies. The shift suggests a broader trend within the Liberal Party, marked by a drift towards the right that could reshape its identity and voter base in the future.
Under Peter Dutton’s leadership, the Coalition has placed One Nation candidates second on scores of how-to-vote cards across the country.
In return, Pauline Hanson has switched One Nation's how-to-vote cards to preference the Liberals second in seats where the Coalition is under threat.
The decision goes against decades of principled condemnation of Hanson and One Nation inside the Liberal Party, and normalises what has for almost 30 years been a shunned fringe voice in Australian politics.
It signals a change not just in campaign tactics, but in what the Liberals stand for.
Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper Mike Seccombe, on the preference deal between One Nation and the Liberal Party and whether it could backfire.
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