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Uncertainty, thy name is tariff
Mar 27, 2025
Martha Gimbel, the Executive Director of the Budget Lab at Yale, dives into the current economic landscape dominated by uncertainty around tariffs. She discusses the latest GDP growth figures and the disconnect between the stock market and everyday consumer experiences. Gimbel highlights the troubling rise in student loan delinquencies and their potential economic ripple effects. Additionally, the podcast explores the alarming rise of train heists that threaten cargo security, shedding light on the challenges facing supply chains today.
25:45
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Quick takeaways
- Tariff uncertainty is causing hesitance among businesses and consumers, potentially leading to a significant slowdown in GDP growth estimates.
- Sinking credit scores due to student loan delinquencies may negatively impact the overall economy by affecting consumer spending and confidence.
Deep dives
Economic Growth Outlook
The economy's growth rate is projected to slow, with estimates dropping from 2% to 1.5% for the current year. Experts highlight that this slowdown is partly due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, which are creating hesitation among businesses and consumers alike. As the economy approaches a tipping point near 1% GDP growth, job gains may turn negative, signaling potential contractions in the labor market. However, some economists maintain that strong consumer spending patterns could buffer against a more drastic downturn.
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