
The Compound and Friends
The Real Reason Treasury Yields Rose With Nick and Jessica, Election Bets and Market Vol With Callie Cox
Oct 29, 2024
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, bring their market expertise to the table alongside Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Red Holt's Wealth Management. They delve into the surprising rise of Treasury yields amidst Federal Reserve cuts, exploring labor market trends and wage dynamics. The trio discusses how political betting might shape financial markets ahead of the 2024 elections. Additionally, they analyze the effects of volatility on investment strategies and the significance of tech valuations, offering a comprehensive view of current economic landscapes.
01:22:55
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Quick takeaways
- The rise in 10-year treasury yields may reflect market bets on stronger growth and inflation rather than immediate economic risks.
- Resilient labor market conditions, indicated by low jobless claims and increased employee empowerment, can positively influence consumer confidence.
Deep dives
Understanding the Rise in 10-Year Treasury Yields
Concerns over the recent increase in the yield of 10-year treasuries center on whether it reflects true economic growth or underlying issues such as fiscal policy. The yield has climbed, leading many to question the Federal Reserve’s decisions and market perceptions of debt levels. Analysts suggest this rise may signify market bets on stronger growth and higher inflation rather than direct reactions to government deficits. A lack of correlation between rising yields and immediate economic detriment suggests that strong labor market data and corporate earnings stability contribute to this trend.
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