RANE Podcast Series Trends from RANE’s Fourth Quarter Forecast
10 snips
Oct 10, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Adriano Bosoni and Sam Lichtenstein, Directors of Analysis at RANE, dive into pressing geopolitical trends. They dissect the evolution of U.S. trade policy and the shift to targeted tariffs. The conversation also covers Ukraine's conflict dynamics, with insights into Russia's capabilities, potential diplomatic paths, and hybrid warfare tactics in Europe. Additionally, they explore tensions in the Middle East, focusing on Israel's aggressive stance and the risks surrounding Iran and Syria.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Targeted Tariff Strategy
- U.S. tariffs will shift from broad, global threats to targeted, sector-specific tariffs in Q4 2025.
- Targeted tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, and furniture create acute risks for economies dependent on those sectors.
Legal Backstops Won't Stop Tariff Momentum
- The Supreme Court case over the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could disrupt the legal basis for many tariffs.
- The Trump administration will seek other legal paths to keep tariff momentum even if the court rules against IEPA use.
Tech Competition Trumps Trade Escalation
- U.S.-China tariff escalation is unlikely in Q4 as both economies slow, but technology competition will intensify.
- China will push to source ~50% of its semiconductor needs domestically, challenging global supply chains.