MIT Research Scientist, Michael Cafarella, joins Bryan and Adam for their predictions episode. Topics include past predictions, AI advancements, the iPhone adoption, Chach EPT and LUMOS commands, massive cuts in VMware, the future of internet search, recording meetings, and future CPUs.
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Quick takeaways
The next year will witness a major privacy scandal involving Zoom video and AI processing, raising concerns about privacy and data security in video conferencing applications.
The fading of AI doomerism from public discussions and debates in the next year, as people realize the practical benefits and limitations of AI, leading to more balanced and informed discourse.
Advancements in instant ad generation within a year, where AI seamlessly generates and inserts highly targeted ads and endorsements into content, blurring the boundaries between content and marketing.
Apple's VR product will be well-received but not achieve widespread adoption or dominate the VR industry due to its high price point and niche appeal, primarily attracting frequent travelers or those seeking portable and powerful VR experiences.
Deep dives
Increase in Privacy Scandals: Zoom and AI Processing
In the next year, there will be a major privacy scandal involving Zoom video and AI processing. The scandal will involve the extraction or reflection of sensitive information from Zoom videos, such as through the analysis of eye movements. This scandal will raise concerns about privacy and data security in video conferencing applications.
The Decline of AI Doomerism
In the next year, AI doomerism will fade from public discussions and debates. As AI technologies become more widely used and understood, people will see the practical benefits and limitations of AI, reducing fears and exaggerated concerns about the dangers of AI. The arguments and predictions made by AI doomers will be largely discredited, leading to a more balanced and informed public discourse on the topic.
Instant Ad Generation and Seamless Integration
Within a year, there will be advancements in instant ad generation, where ads are seamlessly integrated into content to the point where it's difficult to distinguish between them. AI will be used to generate and insert highly targeted ads and endorsements into articles, videos, and other media, all tailored to individual users' interests and preferences. This will revolutionize digital advertising, blurring the boundaries between content and marketing.
Apple VR Success, but Limited Impact
Apple's VR product will be well-received in the market, but it will not achieve widespread adoption or dominate the VR industry. While it will perform well enough to warrant a future revision or upgrade, its high price point and niche appeal will prevent it from becoming a mainstream VR solution. It will primarily attract a specific demographic, such as frequent travelers or those seeking a portable and powerful VR experience.
Prediction 1: AI revolutionizes K-8 education by improving tutoring and personalized learning
AI, specifically language models, will enhance the tutoring experience for students by providing personalized and effective guidance. Students will be able to ask questions, receive explanations, and learn at their own pace with the help of AI-powered tutors. This will allow teachers to focus their attention on students who need more individualized support.
Prediction 2: Less than 50% of the server market by dollars is x86
As other architecture options become more competitive and capable, the dominance of x86 in the server market will be significantly reduced. ARM and other architectures will gain traction, offering more efficient and cost-effective solutions for server applications.
Prediction 3: Robotics progress will lag compared to other AI advancements
While AI continues to advance in other areas, progress in robotics, especially in domestic tasks like dishwashing and cooking, will be limited. The economic viability and complexity of robotic solutions for these tasks will hamper widespread adoption in the next six years.
Prediction 4: AI technologies will transform interviews and code review processes
The use of language models and AI tools will revolutionize the interview process by providing more objective assessments and reducing bias. Additionally, AI will enhance code review processes, allowing for automated code analysis and providing valuable feedback and suggestions to developers.
Bryan and Adam are joined by MIT Research Scientist, Michael Cafarella, for our annual predictions episode where we check in on past predictions and gaze 1-, 3-, and 6- years into the future. No surprise: there were a lot of AI-related predictions. Big surprise: many of them came from Bryan … and with unabashed optimism!
Recorded 1/8/2024
Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal were your hosts. Additional speakers--and predicters--are listed below with their predictions. (If you made predictions, please submit a PR to add or clarify yours)
PRs needed!
If we got something wrong or missed something, please file a PR! Our next show will likely be on Monday at 5p Pacific Time on our Discord server; stay tuned to our Mastodon feeds for details, or subscribe to this calendar. We'd love to have you join us, as we always love to hear from new speakers!
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