Battle Lines China just proved it can cripple the US military in days. Now Trump is furious
Oct 20, 2025
Neha Mukherjee, an analyst at Benchmark Minerals, and Samuel Olsen, a risk analyst from Sibylline, dive into the shocking reality of China's grip on rare earth minerals. They explain how these elements power vital military tech, like fighter jets and missiles. With China's recent export controls, both guests outline the vulnerabilities in the West's supply chain, the consequences of a Taiwan conflict, and the long road ahead for rebuilding defenses. Their insights reveal a geopolitical battle that could reshape global power dynamics without a single shot fired.
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China's Rare Earth Leverage
- China dominates rare earths and can cripple Western militaries by cutting exports.
- This dominance is rarely discussed but fundamentally threatens future wars and defence readiness.
Downstream Dominance Explained
- China controls the downstream stages: processing, magnet making and metal production.
- Over 91% of magnets and nearly all heavy rare earth refining currently route through China.
Decades-Long Strategy For Refining
- China built refining dominance intentionally since the 1990s to control global supply chains.
- Environmental costs and state support let China outcompete other producers in refining capacity.