Call Me Back - with Dan Senor The strike on Iran is back on the table - with Mark Dubowitz and Yonatan Adiri
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Jan 25, 2026 
Yonatan Adiri, former Israeli official who analyzes security and tech-policy, and Mark Dubowitz, Iran expert and FDD CEO, discuss a possible U.S. strike on Iran and which targets might be chosen. They examine Israel’s internal debate over responses. They unpack Saudi-UAE tensions and their effect on normalization, Turkey’s expanding influence, and India’s growing regional role.
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U.S. Strike Probability Is Rising
- The probability of a U.S. strike on Iran is increasing as military assets move into the region.
- Mark Dubowitz ties rising U.S. readiness to Trump warnings and Iranian repression that pressured U.S. action.
What The U.S. Would Likely Hit
- Key U.S. targets would likely include Iran's ballistic missile program, repression apparatus, and IRGC Navy.
- Dubowitz argues the U.S. can degrade missile silos with B-2s and penetrator munitions to limit retaliation risk.
Diplomacy's High Asking Price
- Steve Witkoff demands zero enrichment, full dismantlement, and delivery of stockpiles to the IAEA as the diplomatic price.
- Dubowitz warns Khamenei is unlikely to accept such steep terms, framing diplomacy as a high-cost off-ramp.
