MRKT Matrix All Eyes On Rate Decision Next Week
Dec 4, 2025
Investors are on edge as the Fed's rate decision approaches, with markets currently in a holding pattern. Layoffs have surged to over 1.1 million this year, marking a significant shift in the job market. Dollar stores are experiencing increased traffic as consumers seek affordable options. Meanwhile, Zuckerberg plans deep cuts in Metaverse projects, focusing instead on AI hardware. Alphabet's AI chips, seen as a potential revenue goldmine, could be worth up to $900 billion. Competition looms in the streaming world as Netflix, Paramount, and Comcast vie for Warner Bros. Discovery.
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Markets Eye Imminent Fed Move
- Markets paused as traders priced an ~87% chance of a 25bp Fed cut on Dec. 10 after softer labor signals.
- The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow hovered near flat while Bitcoin and select earnings drove pockets of action.
Labor Data Tilt Toward Easier Policy
- Softer Challenger and ADP data pushed rate-cut odds higher despite low weekly jobless claims.
- Layoff trends and payroll weakness are tilting markets toward easing even without a spike in official unemployment.
AI Names Driving Tech Volatility
- AI-related megacaps weighed on the tech sector despite pockets of strength from companies like Salesforce.
- Bitcoin's rebound contrasted with AI names' volatility, showing divergence within risk assets.