Thiel Talks A Conversation with Peter Thiel and Niall Ferguson - Institute of Politics
Mar 13, 2021
In this engaging conversation, Peter Thiel, the founding CEO of PayPal and a notable venture capitalist, joins historian Niall Ferguson. They dive into the potential second dot-com bubble, exploring the sustainability of startups against a backdrop of economic stagnation. Thiel shares insights on the balance between luck and skill in entrepreneurship, discusses higher education as a competitive instead of nurturing environment, and advocates for innovative energy solutions, particularly nuclear power, to tackle climate change.
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Tech Progress Is Concentrated Not Universal
- Silicon Valley's current growth is real but concentrated and smaller-scale than the 1990s bubble.
- Tech optimism exists mainly in computing and internet sectors and hasn't moved the broader economy.
Zero-To-One vs. Horizontal Copying
- True technological progress is vertical (0 to 1) and often non-repeatable and unique.
- If you aren't world-class in a new technology, you effectively have no second place in global competition.
Progress In Bits, Not Stuff
- Recent progress is strong in bits (computing, internet) but weak in most physical sectors like energy and transport.
- Biomedical gains exist but other "stuff" industries have stagnated compared with mid-20th century trends.
