CoinDesk Podcast Network 10x Research's Markus Thielen Says 2026 Could Bring A Bear Market | Markets Outlook
Dec 2, 2025
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research and crypto market analyst, dives into the troubling outlook for the crypto market. He predicts a bear market in 2026, driven by historical trends during midterm elections and a concerning drop in institutional interest, highlighted by recent ETF outflows. Thielen also discusses shifting whale accumulation patterns, the struggle of digital gold narratives against physical gold, and offers a skeptical view on high Ethereum price projections. It's a thought-provoking analysis of where the crypto landscape might be heading.
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Trump Coin Listing As A Sentiment Shock
- Markus recalled the 2025 'Trump coin' listing and subsequent sentiment hit after exchanges promoted it heavily.
- He described technical weakness around February and a volatile year of distribution and ramp-ups.
OG Distribution Reshaped Whale Structure
- Mega-OG wallets (≥1,000 BTC) distributed into many smaller whale wallets over 2025, creating a new equilibrium.
- That distribution reduced volatility but left newer whale wallets underwater and vulnerable if selling resumes.
ETF Flows Reversed After Fed Hawkishness
- After the October Fed hawkish turn, Bitcoin ETF flows flipped from buyers to sellers, with $4 billion of outflows in 14 trading days.
- Thielen sees institutional 'fatigue' as ETFs rethink large, underperforming allocations during low-return periods.