In a captivating discussion, Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor, Craig Singleton, a senior director at FDD, and Michael Singh, a managing director at The Washington Institute, dissect China's growing influence on global chaos. They explore China's role in supporting rogue states and examine its opportunistic engagement in Middle Eastern conflicts. The panel highlights the challenges of U.S.-China relations, the risks of biotech weaponization, and urges strategic partnerships to counter these threats, particularly in safeguarding Taiwan's resilience.
China's support for rogue regimes like Russia and Iran signifies a strategic shift that destabilizes U.S. interests globally.
Beijing's approach reflects a zero-sum mentality, exploiting conflicts in the Middle East to bolster its own geopolitical gains.
A proactive U.S. strategy prioritizing clear objectives and strong alliances is essential to counter China's expanding influence and chaos.
Deep dives
China as a Global Instigator
China is perceived as a significant instigator in global conflicts, aligning itself with rogue regimes such as Russia and Iran. By supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine and engaging in cyber coercion against Taiwan, China contributes to increased chaos worldwide. This behavior indicates a strategic shift where China sees potential gains in destabilizing U.S. interests while supporting hostile entities. The broader implication is a new 'axis of chaos' that challenges established global order and security.
China's Zero-Sum Strategy
China's geopolitical approach demonstrates a zero-sum mentality, where it believes that any setback for the U.S. is an opportunity for Beijing. This attitude has led China to quickly abandon its positive relations with Israel in light of the recent Middle East conflict. Instead, it has opted to bolster relationships with factions opposing Israel to undermine U.S. influence. This shift may have long-lasting consequences, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and the stability of the region.
Challenges in Engaging China diplomatically
Engaging China in diplomatic dialogues regarding conflicts, especially in the Middle East, is viewed as largely impractical. Despite attempts to entertain China's offers for mediation, experts believe that the risks present exceed potential benefits, as Beijing is primarily focused on countering U.S. influence. Furthermore, while past administrations have sought to leverage China's economic ties with nations like Iran, current perspectives suggest that China is unlikely to exert its influence for productive outcomes. The broader context of U.S.-China relations complicates any domestic efforts China might make toward brokering peace.
China's Exploitation of Global Instability
China has shifted its stance from seeking stability in the Middle East to exploiting chaos as a strategic advantage. For example, China's energy dependence on Iran and its dynamic with Russian influences reflect a willingness to leverage instability for geopolitical gains. Beijing's current strategy emphasizes the creation of dependencies where it benefits from disorder, positioning itself as an economic powerhouse amid global disarray. This intentional pivot indicates a strategic evolution in how China approaches foreign policy by prioritizing security and control over previously held economic interests.
U.S. Baseline Strategies and Responses
The U.S. approach to addressing China's aggressive maneuvers has often been reactive instead of proactive, resulting in a lack of clarity and effectiveness in its strategies. Experts suggest that defining clear end states for conflicts and refraining from limiting allies' capabilities could generate a more favorable response from adversaries. The emphasis should be on building stronger deterrents through support for allies like Taiwan while adapting military and economic strategies to counter increasing Chinese influence. Acknowledging the high stakes, analysts advocate for a shift toward a more assertive and coherent policy that prioritizes winning rather than merely containing challenges.
Today, China is the driving force behind much of the chaos we see around the world — from supporting rogue regimes such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea, to meddling in the Middle East, and interfering in America’s upcoming presidential election. China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and its expanding influence in the Middle East shed light on how Beijing’s ambitions are reshaping the global landscape. The Chinese Communist Party’s strategic calculus demands the question: what steps can the US and its allies take to counter this unprecedented challenge?
FDD’s China Program hosts a panel discussion featuring Matt Pottinger, FDD China Program Chairman and former Deputy National Security Advisor; FDD China Program Senior Director Craig Singleton; and Michael Singh, Managing Director and Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute. The conversation will be moderated by CNN National Security Correspondent Kylie Atwood.
