Why the Conservative path to victory just got complicated
Feb 10, 2025
auto_awesome
Stephanie Levitz, a senior reporter with The Globe and a keen observer of Canadian politics, dives into the shifting dynamics in the Conservative Party. With Trudeau's resignation causing ripples, the Conservatives must rethink their strategies. Levitz reveals insights from Conversations with party insiders about adapting messages to counter rising Liberal support. The discussion also touches on the challenges posed by U.S. political influences and how the party is navigating these complexities ahead of the upcoming election.
The strong lead of the Federal Conservatives in the polls is being challenged by a resurgence of interest in the Liberal leadership race following Trudeau's resignation.
Pierre Polievre's strategy adaptation includes reframing the carbon tax debate to emphasize competitiveness, while navigating support for Trump and broader voter appeal.
Deep dives
Shifting Poll Dynamics
The Federal Conservatives have maintained a strong lead in polls for over two years, but recent trends indicate a notable shift in public sentiment. Polling data from Ipsos Reid shows the Conservatives at 41 percent and the Liberals at 28 percent, with the latter experiencing an eight-point increase. This shift is linked to growing interest in the Liberal leadership race following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement of his impending departure. This evolving political landscape may compel voters to reevaluate their choices, potentially benefiting the Liberals in the upcoming election.
Repositioning Strategy Against Trump
The Conservatives are adapting their strategy to respond to the emerging focus on trade and relations with former President Donald Trump, emphasizing the need to reassess their messaging. Pierre Polyev has begun reframing longstanding arguments against the carbon tax as anti-competitive, asserting that it hinders business investment in Canada compared to the U.S. This change in focus marks a departure from the internal issues concerning affordability and cost of living, now spotlighting Trump’s influence as a critical factor in Canadian politics. The Conservative party recognizes that how they engage with these issues may significantly impact their appeal to voters amidst shifting priorities.
Navigating Internal and External Challenges
As the political landscape shifts, the Conservatives are grappling with navigating the dynamics of their party while attracting a diverse voter base. Polyev faces the challenge of appealing to both Trump supporters within the party and disenchanted voters who may not favor Trump’s policies. This presents a delicate balance as he seeks to position himself as a champion for Canadian interests while avoiding direct confrontation with Trump. By focusing on domestic issues like economic challenges and public safety, while downplaying Trump's role, Polyev aims to broaden his appeal and position the Conservatives favorably for the next election.
For more than two years, the federal Conservatives have held a solid lead in the polls, and with the party bringing in a record-setting $41.7 million in donations last year, leader Pierre Poilievre looks poised to win the upcoming election.
But with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigning, U.S. President Donald Trump threatening tariffs and Liberal leadership candidates gaining some traction, the Conservatives are having to rethink their strategies.
Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter with the Globe. She’s spoken with a dozen Conservatives, including MPs, strategists and organizers. Today, she’ll explain the new challenges the party is facing, and how they’re repositioning themselves within the shifting political landscape.