The U.S. rooftop solar market has tanked. Residential applications in California, the largest market in the country, plunged 82% from May through November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Contractors are going bankrupt. The big culprits are high interest rates and California’s subsidy cuts. But there are some bright spots. Battery attachment rates in California have surged.

So what will it take to revive the U.S. rooftop solar market?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Jigar Shah, director of the Loans Programs Office at the U.S. Department of Energy. Jigar argues that the rooftop solar industry should reinvent itself, relying on batteries and virtual power plants (VPPs). He also argues that regulations should focus on system-level dispatchability.

Shayle and Jigar cover topics like:

The pros and cons of California’s latest regulations, new energy metering or NEM 3.0
Learning from the mistakes of California’s Self-Generation Incentive Program (S-GIP)
The role of VPPs and rooftop solar in meeting accelerating load growth
Incentivizing system-level dispatchability
How VPPs complicate the sales pitch for rooftop solar
How VPPs could help utilities increase the utilization of infrastructure
How to make VPPs more reliable

Recommended Resources:

U.S. Department of Energy: Virtual Power Plants Commercial Liftoff

Latitude Media: Defining the rules of DER aggregation

Latitude Media: Unpacking the software layer of VPP deployment

CalMatters: What’s happened since California cut home solar payments? Demand has plunged 80%

The Wall Street Journal: The Home-Solar Boom Gets a ‘Gut Punch’

Catalyst is supported by Origami Solar. Join Latitude Media’s Stephen Lacey and Origami’s CEO Gregg Patterson for a live Frontier Forum on May 30th at 1 pm Eastern to discuss Origami’s new research on how recycled steel can help reinvigorate the U.S. solar industry. Register for free on Latitude’s events page.

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