Charles McGarraugh - "Change in the Market is Accelerating" (S7E1)
Dec 4, 2023
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Charles McGarraugh, CIO of Altis Partners, discusses their investment stack, comprising an upstream signal layer and a downstream strategy layer. They explore the benefits and drawbacks of this design, the operation of the signal layer, the need for adaptiveness in a rapidly changing world, integrating alternative data in market prediction, portfolio construction and risk management, and their fascination with asset duration and expectations formation.
Adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions is crucial for success in a world of increasing non-stationarity.
The product structure of ETFs provides a more accessible and disintermediated distribution model for delivering active strategies.
Active strategies in the ETF format can offer unique benefits, such as diversification, liquidity, and adaptation to changing market conditions.
Deep dives
The Importance of Adaptation in Designing Investment Strategies
One of the main ideas discussed in this episode is the importance of adapting investment strategies to a world of increasing non-stationarity. Non-stationarity refers to the idea that market conditions and dynamics are constantly changing, and traditional strategies that rely solely on historical market data may not be effective in such an environment. The guest speaker emphasizes the need for strategies that are responsive and adaptable to changing market conditions. By incorporating multiple risk premia and using signals like trend, carry, and intermarket relationships, the speaker's firm aims to make predictions on future returns. The design of the signal layer in their investment stack involves blending these factors and parameterizing predictions for different time horizons and assets.
Productizing Alternative Strategies in an Evolving Market
Another key point discussed is the approach to productizing alternative strategies in the current market environment. The guest speaker highlights the belief that passive investing may not be the best approach for the next decade, given the increasing volatility and non-stationarity in the markets. Instead, the speaker advocates for active strategies that take into account different risk premia and market dynamics. The choice of product structure plays an important role in delivering these strategies. While hedge funds offer flexibility and customization, ETFs provide a more accessible and disintermediated distribution model, making it easier for advisors and investors to allocate to alternative strategies. The speaker views ETFs as a vehicle to deliver a superior value proposition to a larger market by providing ease of use, diversification, and risk reduction.
The Value of Active Management in ETFs
Within the context of ETFs, the guest speaker discusses the value of active management. While passive strategies have dominated the ETF space, there is a growing recognition that active strategies can offer unique benefits. By leveraging factors like diversification and multi-factor strategies, active ETFs can enhance returns and provide risk reduction. The speaker emphasizes the importance of delivering an absolute return and offering a negative correlation to existing liquid assets. Furthermore, the adaptability and responsiveness of active strategies make them desirable in a market characterized by increasing volatility and changing market conditions. Overall, the speaker believes that active strategies in the ETF format can provide a valuable alternative for investors seeking diversification and liquidity.
Adaptiveness in Trading Strategies and the Changing Market Landscape
The podcast episode discusses the need for trading strategies to be more adaptive due to the rapidly changing market landscape. In the past, strategies relied on financial asset inflation and market stability. However, with the threat of de-globalization, geopolitical instability, and aggressive policy interventions, the world is experiencing regime change. This necessitates strategies that are more adaptable to new statistical relationships and changing economic dynamics. The discussion emphasizes the importance of being prepared for non-stationary events and the challenges of balancing adaptiveness with the risk of overfitting.
Ingesting Alternative Data and Portfolio Construction
The episode explores the benefits and challenges of using alternative data in trading strategies. Alternative data offers the potential for unique information content beyond traditional market data. However, integrating and analyzing alternative data presents challenges, such as ensuring the data is out of sample and properly blended with other indicators. Additionally, the episode highlights the importance of dynamic portfolio construction in a world with transaction costs and varying market dynamics. The discussion emphasizes the use of dynamic scheduling and fractional Kelly betting systems to optimize portfolio growth rate, considering transaction costs, expected returns, and risk management.
In this episode I speak with Charles McGarraugh, Chief Investment Officer of Altis Partners.
Charlie finds himself at the helm of Altis from a non-traditional route. His career began at Goldman, where his experience spanned everything from asset backed securities to liquid commodities. He then started a firm specializing in machine-learning driven sports betting before moving into cryptocurrency markets. Today, Charlie is betting that alternative strategies will play an increasingly important role for investors over the coming decade.
We spend the majority of our conversation talking about Altis’s investment stack, which is comprised of two components: an upstream signal layer and a downstream strategy layer. The signal layer is responsible for ingesting data and constructing a prediction curve for different futures markets. The strategy layer ingests these prediction curves and constructs a portfolio. Charlie discusses the types of signals Altis relies on, how they turn prediction curves into trade signals, and where risk management fits into the equation.
I hope you enjoy my conversation with Charles McGarraugh.
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