In the Money with Amber Kanwar Dan Niles Warns of a 50% Market Drop | Don’t Get Fooled by the AI Hype
In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar top tech investor Dan Niles warns that the market could drop as much as 50%, just like during the dot-com bust and the global financial crisis. He unpacks the major risks that investors aren’t paying enough attention to like AI over exuberance and demand being pulled forward as a result of Trump’s trade war, while drawing parallels to some of the worst market crashes in history.
Dan explains why his highest conviction idea right now is cash despite the AI hype, and why some of today’s biggest tech names — like Apple, Google, and Palantir — may be far more vulnerable than most investors realize. He stresses his concern over inflated valuations, making the point that “just because a stock is popular doesn’t mean it’s safe".
One area Dan is optimistic about: networking infrastructure. He names Cisco as one of his most intriguing picks, arguing it's a forgotten name that could benefit as AI shifts from a build-out phase to a data movement phase. With a low valuation, solid fundamentals, and potential for a re-rating, Cisco — along with cash, Microsoft, and (cautiously) Nvidia — rounds out his list of favoured plays in a market he still views as overvalued and vulnerable.
Whether you’re a long-term investor or a market watcher trying to make sense of the rally, this is an essential deep dive from one of Wall Street’s most seasoned voices.
Timestamps
00:00 Show Intro
3:40 Why Dan Niles is bearish right now and why cash is his highest conviction idea
07:40 What would it take for Dan to come back to the market and get out of cash?
09:35 Why Dan thinks a 50% drop in stocks is on the table
11:30 Why this time can be compared to the dot-com bust
17:33 Taking a look at the AARK Innovation Fund
19:15 But could this time be different?
24:25 ITM Mailbag: Dan’s thoughts on Palantir (PLTR) and its sky-high valuation
27:40 Dan’s view on Shopify vs. Amazon (SHOP, AMZN)
34:15 Is Reddit a buy, sell or hold? (RDDT)
35:35: Break: Amber speaks to the CEO of Raymond James Canada about how the company is helping clients navigate volatility and change
38:15 Why Dan thinks Google will be a market share loser because of AI
42:50 How does Dan see the Robotaxi battle playing out?
44:50 Where does Apple fit in?
47:00 Pro Picks: Why he likes cash the best but suggests some other stocks (CSCO, MSFT, NVDA)
56:00 Goodbye & coming up
Sponsors
This episode is sponsored by BMO InvestorLine. Open a new BMO InvestorLine account, and you could receive up to $3,500 cash back. It’s a great way to jumpstart your investment plan. Learn more at https://bmo.com/onlineinvesting?ecid=pr-2886232INV1-JNBMO16
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. With $62 billion in assets, ATB Financial is powering possibilities for more than 820,000 financial services clients in Alberta and beyond. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
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The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
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The opinions and views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and not necessarily BMO InvestorLine Inc. This presentation is prepared as a general source of information and is not intended to provide legal, investment, accounting or tax advice, and should not be relied upon in that regard. If legal or investment advice or other professional assistance is needed, the services of a competent professional should be obtained. Any information contained in this presentation does not constitute and shall not be deemed to constitute advice, an offer to sell/purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any entity. The content of this presentation is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. BMO InvestorLine Inc. and its affiliates, sponsors and employees do not accept responsibility for the content and makes no representation as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the content and hereby disclaims any liability with regards to the same.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, market analysis, and timely investing insights. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers and financial experts. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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