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Big Take Asia
Another Trump Term Is Coming. Is Asia Ready?
Nov 12, 2024
Daniel Ten Kate, Bloomberg’s executive editor for Asia economy and government, shares his expertise on the potential impact of a second Trump term on the Asian landscape. He discusses rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning China and Taiwan. The conversation also highlights the shifting dynamics in U.S.-India relations and the critical role of Southeast Asian nations in trade. With uncertainties looming, Ten Kate emphasizes the challenges that countries face in a fractured global environment.
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Quick takeaways
- Trump's potential return could exacerbate China's economic challenges through higher tariffs, impacting both its growth and U.S. consumers.
- Emerging Southeast Asian economies like Vietnam and Thailand may benefit from diversifying supply chains, while India faces mixed outcomes amid trade friction.
Deep dives
Anticipating Economic Turmoil
Trump's return to the presidency is expected to bring economic upheaval, particularly for China, which faced significant tariffs during his first term. The imposition of tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2018 has resulted in a more fragile Chinese economy, struggling due to factors like a property sector crisis and COVID lockdowns. Economic analysts predict that the potential escalation of tariffs could further impact China's annual growth by a few percentage points, leading to higher prices for American consumers as well. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's intentions raises concerns within China regarding how to effectively respond to any new tariff threats.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode