Sea Control 566: No One Should Think the War Will be Short with CDR Justin Cobb
Mar 8, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, CDR Justin Cobb, a Maritime Fires Officer and seasoned rotary-wing aviator, tackles the complexities of potential conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. He warns against the dangers of underestimating the length and intensity of modern warfare, drawing insights from historical conflicts like Ukraine. Cobb calls for reforms in military readiness to address inefficient structures while advocating for a balanced strategy between military deterrence and diplomacy. His passion for debate and future writing projects adds an exciting layer to the conversation.
The potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan is anticipated to be prolonged due to high stakes for both nations and their reputations.
Military planning should prioritize comprehensive long-term strategies and alliances instead of solely focusing on immediate operational challenges or denial strategies.
Deep dives
Long-Term Conflict Acknowledgment
The discussion highlights the belief that any potential conflict between the United States and China, especially regarding Taiwan, is unlikely to be brief. The stakes involved are perceived to be too high for both nations, with China deeply invested in its reputation and the U.S. committed to maintaining a rules-based global order. This notion suggests that the ongoing tensions may already resemble a form of conflict that doesn't necessitate kinetic engagement, implying that the current strategic competition has evolved into a continuous struggle, even if it doesn't explicitly manifest as open warfare. Historically, many conflicts that were anticipated as short and decisive, such as the ongoing strife in Ukraine, serve as reminders that wars often extend far beyond initial expectations, necessitating a proactive mindset regarding future engagements.
Risks of a Short War Mentality
Focusing exclusively on the possibility of a short, decisive conflict poses significant risks in military planning and strategy. This approach fosters a denial strategy that centers primarily on the immediate operational challenges, such as preventing an amphibious invasion, which may overlook broader strategic realities. By concentrating resources and capabilities on a single objective, there is a danger of neglecting comprehensive long-term strategies and becoming operationally brilliant while strategically ineffective. Historical analogies suggest that this narrowed focus may reflect the vulnerabilities of the Maginot Line, where investing heavily in a specific defense could prove ineffective against unconventional tactics employed by adversaries.
Strategic Deterrence and Force Design
Given the assumption of a protracted conflict, the dialogue emphasizes the need for a robust military force that encompasses broader strategic considerations rather than narrowly defined operational objectives. This includes reinforcing alliances, enhancing military presence, and developing capability across multiple theaters rather than concentrating solely on immediate tactical challenges. Effective deterrence is characterized by the engagement of allies and the demonstration of resolve, which requires investment in various military capacities beyond advanced weaponry. Additionally, issues such as manpower, industrial capacity, and strategic investments should be addressed to ensure sustained readiness and support long-term objectives in a potentially enduring conflict scenario.
Commander Justin Cobb is the maritime fires officer with Carrier Strike Group 11. A rotary-wing aviator, he previously served as the commanding officer of the Helicopter Training Squadron 18 Vigilant Eagles at Naval Air Station Whiting Field, Florida. A graduate of the Joint Forces Staff College, he conducted his joint tour at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe in Mons, Belgium, where he was the lead action officer on the NATO joint command-and-control concept.
Linkedin:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinmcobb1310/
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