David Weisburd sits down with David Clark, Investment Director at VenCap International PLC to discuss his viral post about power laws in venture capital, manager predictability, adverse selection in VC, and what percent of startups go to zero.

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(0:00) Introduction to David Clark's venture capital experience (2:44) Analyzing early-stage fund returns and leading indicators (6:17) Assessing predictability and performance in venture capital (11:28) Market corrections and risk management strategies (14:36) Sponsor: AngelList (16:00) Essential traits of a successful VC and return persistence (19:08) Scaling fund sizes and their impact on performance (21:32) Ownership targets and handling adverse selection (29:00) Pattern recognition and the Thiel Fellowship (29:21) Managing follow-on capital and trust in fund cycles (35:43) Countercyclical strategies and the LP reset (37:31) Trends in venture capital and the rise of spin-offs (40:44) Evaluating spin-out managers and GP/LP terms (45:12) Wrap-up: Firm insights and closing thoughts