#68 - Will MacAskill on the paralysis argument, whether we're at the hinge of history, & his new priorities

Jan 24, 2020

Philosophy Professor Will MacAskill, a co-founder of the Effective Altruism community, dives deep into moral responsibility and the impact of our everyday choices. He presents a thought experiment about life's fragility, examining how even small actions can ripple through time, influencing future generations. They discuss the ongoing shifts within higher education, the complexities of navigating altruism in a pivotal historical context, and the urgent need for long-term thinking in addressing existential risks—from AI to climate change.

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ANECDOTE

Will MacAskill's Work

Will MacAskill's work is split between the Effective Altruism movement, the Global Priorities Institute, and a new book.
The book, "What We Owe the Future," focuses on the importance of future generations.

ANECDOTE

Speaking Tour Feedback

MacAskill tested his book's arguments on a speaking tour, gathering feedback from audiences.
Surprisingly, many people stated that future people simply don't matter.

INSIGHT

The Paralysis Argument

The Paralysis Argument explores how everyday actions can unintentionally cause harm through ripple effects on future generations.
Non-consequentialist ethics, with its emphasis on minimizing harm, may lead to inaction.

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The Cambridge grammar of the English language

Rodney D. Huddleston

Geoffrey K. Pullum

This book provides a detailed and authoritative description of English grammar, covering various aspects such as syntax, phonetics, and semantics. It is considered one of the most comprehensive grammatical descriptions of any language.

Undiscussed

Colin McGinn

No information available about a book titled 'Undiscussed' by Colin McGinn.

Foragers, farmers, and fossil fuels

how human values evolve

Margaret Atwood

Ian Morris

Christine M. Korsgaard

Stephen Macedo

Ian Morris argues that fundamental long-term changes in human values are driven by the most basic force of all: energy. He explains how different energy sources—foraging, farming, and fossil fuels—have set strict limits on what kinds of societies can succeed and which values are rewarded. The book includes responses from various scholars, including Margaret Atwood, Christine Korsgaard, Richard Seaford, and Jonathan Spence, and it has far-reaching implications for understanding the past and the future of human values.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War

Robert J. Gordon

The book describes the 100 years following 1870 as the 'Special Century,' a period of revolutionary growth and prosperity driven by innovations such as electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television. Gordon argues that this era of growth has been flatlining since 1970, marked by growing inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and rising debt. He contends that the productivity growth of the past cannot be repeated and identifies several 'headwinds' that will continue to slow American economic growth. The book is divided into two main parts, covering the period from 1870 to 1940 and from 1940 to 2010, and includes detailed statistical analysis and historical anecdotes to support its arguments.

The Secret of Our Success

Jonathan Yen

Joseph Henrich

In 'The Secret of Our Success', Joseph Henrich presents a provocative alternative to the standard narrative about human evolution. He argues that the key to human success is not our individual intelligence, but our ability to form collective brains that store and transmit vast amounts of cultural knowledge. Henrich draws on findings from anthropology, linguistics, behavioral economics, psychology, and evolutionary biology to demonstrate how culture and genes interact in a unique evolutionary process that drives human innovation and progress. The book challenges traditional views of evolution and highlights the importance of social and cultural factors in shaping human behavior and achievements.

Superintelligence

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Nick Bostrom

In this book, Nick Bostrom delves into the implications of creating superintelligence, which could surpass human intelligence in all domains. He discusses the potential dangers, such as the loss of human control over such powerful entities, and presents various strategies to ensure that superintelligences align with human values. The book examines the 'AI control problem' and the need to endow future machine intelligence with positive values to prevent existential risks[3][5][4].

Human Compatible

Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control

Stuart J. Russell

In this book, Stuart Russell explores the concept of intelligence in humans and machines, outlining the near-term benefits and potential risks of AI. He discusses the misuse of AI, from lethal autonomous weapons to viral sabotage, and proposes a novel solution by rebuilding AI on a new foundation where machines are inherently uncertain about human preferences. This approach aims to create machines that are humble, altruistic, and committed to pursuing human objectives, ensuring they remain provably deferential and beneficial to humans.

What We Owe the Future

William MacAskill

In this book, William MacAskill advocates for longtermism, the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority. He argues that future people count, there could be many of them, and we can make their lives better. MacAskill discusses various threats to humanity, including climate change, AI misalignment, and pandemics, and proposes strategies to ensure civilization's survival and improve its trajectory. The book explores moral and philosophical issues surrounding longtermism, including the risks of human extinction, civilizational collapse, and technological stagnation, while offering a measured optimism about the future's potential for human flourishing[1][5][4].

Moral Uncertainty

William MacAskill

Toby Ord

Krister Bykvist

Doing Good Better

Will MacAskill

1984

None

George Orwell

Published in 1949, '1984' is a cautionary tale by George Orwell that explores the dangers of totalitarianism. The novel is set in a dystopian future where the world is divided into three super-states, with the protagonist Winston Smith living in Oceania, ruled by the mysterious and omnipotent leader Big Brother. Winston works at the Ministry of Truth, where he rewrites historical records to conform to the Party's ever-changing narrative. He begins an illicit love affair with Julia and starts to rebel against the Party, but they are eventually caught and subjected to brutal torture and indoctrination. The novel highlights themes of government surveillance, manipulation of language and history, and the suppression of individual freedom and independent thought.

You’re given a box with a set of dice in it. If you roll an even number, a person's life is saved. If you roll an odd number, someone else will die. Each time you shake the box you get $10. Should you do it?

A committed consequentialist might say, "Sure! Free money!" But most will think it obvious that you should say no. You've only gotten a tiny benefit, in exchange for moral responsibility over whether other people live or die.

And yet, according to today’s return guest, philosophy Prof Will MacAskill, in a real sense we’re shaking this box every time we leave the house, and those who think shaking the box is wrong should probably also be shutting themselves indoors and minimising their interactions with others.

• Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.
• Job opportunities at the Global Priorities Institute.

To see this, imagine you’re deciding whether to redeem a coupon for a free movie. If you go, you’ll need to drive to the cinema. By affecting traffic throughout the city, you’ll have slightly impacted the schedules of thousands or tens of thousands of people. The average life is about 30,000 days, and over the course of a life the average person will have about two children. So — if you’ve impacted at least 7,500 days — then, statistically speaking, you've probably influenced the exact timing of a conception event. With 200 million sperm in the running each time, changing the moment of copulation, even by a fraction of a second, will almost certainly mean you've changed the identity of a future person.

That different child will now impact all sorts of things as they go about their life, including future conception events. And then those new people will impact further future conceptions events, and so on. After 100 or maybe 200 years, basically everybody alive will be a different person because you went to the movies.

As a result, you’ll have changed when many people die. Take car crashes as one example: about 1.3% of people die in car crashes. Over that century, as the identities of everyone change as a result of your action, many of the 'new' people will cause car crashes that wouldn't have occurred in their absence, including crashes that prematurely kill people alive today.

Of course, in expectation, exactly the same number of people will have been saved from car crashes, and will die later than they would have otherwise.

So, if you go for this drive, you’ll save hundreds of people from premature death, and cause the early death of an equal number of others. But you’ll get to see a free movie, worth $10. Should you do it?

This setup forms the basis of ‘the paralysis argument’, explored in one of Will’s recent papers.

Because most 'non-consequentialists' endorse an act/omission distinction… post truncated due to character limit, finish reading the full explanation here.

So what's the best way to fix this strange conclusion? We discuss a few options, but the most promising might bring people a lot closer to full consequentialism than is immediately apparent. In this episode Will and I also cover:

• Are, or are we not, living in the most influential time in history?
• The culture of the effective altruism community
• Will's new lower estimate of the risk of human extinction
• Why Will is now less focused on AI
• The differences between Americans and Brits
• Why feeling guilty about characteristics you were born with is crazy
• And plenty more.

Chapters:

Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
The interview begins (00:04:03)
The paralysis argument (00:15:42)
The case for strong longtermism (00:55:21)
Longtermism for risk-averse altruists (00:58:01)
Are we living in the most influential time in history? (01:14:37)
The risk of human extinction in the next hundred years (02:15:20)
Implications for the effective altruism community (02:50:03)
Culture of the effective altruism community (03:06:28)

Producer: Keiran Harris.
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell.
Transcriptions: Zakee Ulhaq.