Highlights: #211 – Sam Bowman on why housing still isn’t fixed and what would actually work
Jan 6, 2025
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Sam Bowman, an economist and editor of Works in Progress, dives into the housing crisis in developed countries, emphasizing the powerful grip of NIMBYism. He presents innovative solutions like street votes to empower local residents and discusses property tax distribution's significant role. Sam argues that overcoming NIMBY opposition requires rethinking incentives and highlights the surprising local support for nuclear power. He also touches on the intersection of technology in public health, especially concerning obesity and food choices.
Rich countries face an under-construction crisis linked to economic stagnation, resulting in rising housing costs and societal challenges.
Regulatory barriers in the UK and US hinder new housing projects, exacerbating social inequalities and limiting affordable housing availability.
Innovative solutions like street votes empower residents in housing decisions, creating community investment and fostering support for new developments.
Deep dives
Crisis of Under-Construction
Rich countries are facing a significant crisis of under-construction, which is closely linked to economic stagnation and a decline in innovation. Developed countries, especially in the West, are grappling with a lack of new infrastructure development, hindering their ability to grow and adapt to changing societal needs. This stagnation is evident in the housing market, where a lack of construction leads to rising housing costs and exacerbates issues such as declining birth rates and public health challenges. The speaker emphasizes that the roots of this problem lie not in technological constraints, but rather in political and social incentives that discourage substantial investment and development.
The Impact of Regulatory Barriers
Regulatory barriers play a crucial role in exacerbating the housing crisis in both the UK and the US, leading to extensive economic harm. In areas like London and major US cities, the gap between the cost of building homes and their selling prices is disproportionately large, largely due to stringent planning and zoning laws. As a result, many potential housing projects are stalled or abandoned, which limits the availability of affordable housing and perpetuates social inequalities. Notable examples of this regulatory failure include the lack of new reservoirs since 1992 and extensive delays in essential infrastructure projects, reflecting a systemic inability to streamline construction processes.
Overcoming NIMBYism Through Incentives
To effectively combat NIMBYism (Not In My Backyard syndrome), the focus must shift towards creating incentives for local residents to support new housing developments. Traditional approaches that impose targets or mandates have often failed because they fail to address the underlying concerns of local communities, leading to strong opposition. Instead, crafting solutions that align the interests of residents with the benefits of new development could foster a more cooperative environment. By enabling residents to partake in the profits generated from new housing or infrastructure, the issue could be reframed as a community investment rather than an unwelcome intrusion.
Innovative Policies for Local Decision-Making
Innovative policies like street votes empower residents by allowing them to have a say in local housing designs and density rules. This localized decision-making process lets communities opt out of existing planning restrictions and create a bespoke development model that reflects their preferences and needs. Successful implementation in areas such as council housing estates in London demonstrates the potential for strong community support when residents feel included in planning decisions. By enabling communities to dictate the terms of development, street votes may help bridge the gap between existing residents and new housing initiatives.
Revamping Property Tax Policies
Property tax distribution is a critical yet often overlooked issue that significantly impacts local housing policies. The shift towards centralized property tax allocation undermines local governments' incentives to support the construction of new housing or commercial developments, as they do not directly benefit from the economic growth those projects would bring. Re-evaluating property tax structures to allow local councils to retain more tax revenue could encourage them to promote developments that would improve local infrastructure and services. By restoring these financial incentives, communities could enhance their built environment while ensuring broader equity and inclusion in housing opportunities.
Economist and editor of Works in ProgressSam Bowman isn’t content to just condemn the Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY) mentality behind rich countries' construction stagnation. He wants to actually get a tonne of stuff built, and by that standard the strategy of attacking ‘NIMBYs’ has been an abject failure. They are too politically powerful, and if you try to crush them, sooner or later they crush you.
So Sam lays out three alternative strategies in our full interview with him — including highlights like:
Rich countries have a crisis of underconstruction (00:00:19)
The UK builds shockingly little because of its planning permission system (00:04:57)
Overcoming NIMBYism means fixing incentives (00:07:21)
NIMBYs aren't wrong: they are often harmed by development (00:10:44)
Street votes give existing residents a say (00:16:29)
It's essential to define in advance who gets a say (00:24:37)
Property tax distribution might be the most important policy you've never heard of (00:28:55)
Using aesthetics to get buy-in for new construction (00:35:48)
Locals actually really like having nuclear power plants nearby (00:44:14)
It can be really useful to let old and new institutions coexist for a while (00:48:27)
Ozempic and living in the decade that we conquered obesity (00:53:05)
Northern latitudes still need nuclear power (00:55:30)
And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org. (And you may have noticed this episode is longer than most of our highlights episodes — let us know if you liked that or not!)
Highlights put together by Simon Monsour, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong
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