The Brief: Economic Snapshot for Winter 2024

The BCA team dives into many of the leading and lagging economic indicators that tell us a bit about where Alberta's economy stands compared to the summer snapshot. They also dive into some of the political developments both nationally and globally and what they could mean for Alberta and Canada's economic forecast into 2025.

There are several positives in Alberta's outlook. The Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes seem to have set Canada's economy up for the 'soft landing' they hoped for, curbing consumption and inflation without significant job losses. Meanwhile, Alberta continues to be the economic engine of Canada, significantly outperforming the rest of the country in jobs and economic growth. However, the Alberta and Canadian economies are showing signs of slowing, with job growth decelerating over the past 6-8 months. 

Certain "good" sectors like manufacturing, construction, and oil/gas have seen job growth level off after strong gains earlier. This suggests consumer demand has weakened. Newcomers and recent immigrants are being hit particularly hard, with their unemployment rate rising from 10% to 15% over the past year.

Interest rate hikes have started to be reversed, but the full impact of past increases has not yet been felt in the economy. It takes time for rate changes to filter through. The federal government's planned cuts to immigration levels could have significant impacts, though there are questions around whether the full extent of the cuts will actually materialize.

The housing market is seeing a surge in construction activity, especially in Alberta compared to other regions, but it is yet to be seen how this will play out given Canada's anticipated pullback in population growth.

Globally, central banks are seen as having tamed inflation, but there are risks around rising protectionism that could impact the economy.

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About the Business Council of Alberta

The Business Council of Alberta was founded on a simple idea: to make life better for all Albertans. We believe that business has an important role in improving society, and that when business does well, we all do well. We work with the chief executives and leading entrepreneurs of Alberta’s largest enterprises to understand the big, long-term challenges that Albertans are facing and work with industry, government, and civil society to solve these problems and build shared prosperity for every person who calls Alberta home.

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