Mario Cibelli, managing partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, discusses the negative sentiment towards small caps and the underperformance of small caps in comparison to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. The podcast explores the rise of big tech companies, the potential for significant changes in small companies, and the value of investing in companies beyond the index. It also delves into the advantages of active management in small cap investments.
Small caps are currently undervalued compared to large-cap tech stocks and have potential for strong forward returns.
Finding value in small caps requires thorough research and understanding of individual companies.
Deep dives
Small caps are currently undervalued
According to Mario Sibelley, founder of Marathon Partners Equity Management, small caps are currently undervalued. He compares the current market to two previous periods of undervaluation for small caps: post-2000 dot-com bubble burst and post-global financial crisis. Sibelley believes that the current undervaluation ranks close to the early 2000s in terms of attractiveness.
Small caps have been underperforming
Small caps have experienced significant underperformance in recent years, lagging behind the S&P 500 by 81% since 2016. In 2021, the Russell 2000 is trailing the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points. If this underperformance continues into early 2024, it will be one of the longest on record. However, historical data suggests that small caps tend to have strong forward returns after periods of underperformance.
Bullish arguments for large-cap tech stocks
Some argue that large-cap tech stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are superior companies and will continue to outperform due to their dominance and superior technologies. However, Mario Sibelley questions how the best of the current crop can be measured against the best of the past. He believes that after a long period of dominance, the valuations of big tech companies are already priced in and that real value can be found in other areas.
Opportunities in small-cap investments
Despite the current sentiment and challenges faced by small caps, Sibelley sees potential opportunities in smaller companies. He cites examples such as Zometree, an online marketplace for custom manufacturing, and Eventbrite, a platform for smaller events. These companies demonstrate potential for growth and profitability, even in a challenging economic environment. Sibelley emphasizes that finding value in small caps requires thorough research and understanding of individual companies.